I'm currently 44, my wife (45) and I are going to make approximately combined 275k gross this year. We live off a budget of about 68,000 per year. That includes a vacation budget of 15,000 per year. We're cheap, but not miserable.
We have a child with an established fully funded 529 for college that starts next year.
We have zero debt of any kind - cars and house are paid off - credit cards etc are all paid in full every month.
We have 1.2 million in 401k, and IRS maxing every year at the limit (plus company match).
We currently put 2500 per pay into a brokerage that is just S&P500 index fund.
Current balance is about 300k
We keep a savings account of 5-10k available, and move money to the brokerage when it gets over 10k, to drop it back down to 5k. I also get a bonus every year that goes into the brokerage (unless we have a house project or big vacation, etc). Last year it was about 20k extra deposit.
My goal is retirement in December of 2031, at 49 years old. My forecasts say we'll be at 1.5 million in 401k, and about 1 million in the brokerage. The brokerage would tie us over for the 10-15 years, even with no growth in the market (1mil/70k=14.5 years) until we hit the age we can pull from 401k - which should be at like 1.8 million at that point according to projections
Health insurance is the question mark - we have 25k currently in HSA, with maxing 9000/year in deposits there.
Copilot says we can use the ACA marketplace and get cheap/free insurance there when we retire - is that accurate? Seems too easy..
How far off are my expectations?
Edit to add: we are planning roth conversions of about 40k/year starting the year we retire. Thanks for reminding me to mention that we're planning on that.