r/SelfDrivingCars • u/ZealousidealLab2920 • 6d ago
Discussion Sad How Out of Touch the Uber Drivers are
Can't say I didn't try to warn them...
https://www.reddit.com/r/uberdrivers/s/qPSjld44OX
Almost every comment and vote is that AVs are a joke, riders don't want them, and they are unsafe, and not profitable...lol
Heads in the sand sadly.
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u/bradtem ✅ Brad Templeton 6d ago
It's the standard mix of confirmation bias and wishful thinking. You pay attention only to evidence which meets your preconceptions, or demonstrates what we want to be true. Every human is guilty of it, except myself of course.
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u/AntipodalDr 5d ago
the standard mix of confirmation bias and wishful thinking
Brad you silly bugger you do realise this also applies to the many breathless AV advocates in this sub? What happens when one mentions the business case for robotaxis is not as clear as claimed?
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u/bradtem ✅ Brad Templeton 5d ago
Well, I have worked that case out more than most. But I don't pretend that things could not happen to monkey things up. No business plan survives first contact with the customer, I believe Sun Tzu said. But I think there's little doubt that people want great mobility with convenience, comfort and direct travel, and they will pay handsomely for it. The question is can you deliver it in a way they find superior to today's options that they pay handsomely for. If you can deliver it for that price, there is a business, unless somebody does even better, or people stop wanting mobility. Is it exactly the structure people see today? Of course not. But is there a pony in there somewhere, to quote the optimist boy? Well, people are betting many billions there is, even if it's not the first pony they aim for. But people are welcome to point out things that may not happen, but they should be aware that some of the things they are trying to show won't happen were not part of the plan.
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 6d ago edited 6d ago
I would have suspected with all of the anti-AI that it would resonate with more though. But it seems just like flat out denial over any concern of job loss to robotaxi. That was very surprising to me.
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u/bradtem ✅ Brad Templeton 6d ago
Job loss is coming. Far beyond loss of driving jobs Automation has changed jobs, and eliminated jobs for 200 years. In the last 200 years it has eliminated over 98% of all jobs. (Back then, 98% of people worked in agriculture.)
So we should prepare for this. However, on the list of jobs to be replaced by automation, let's face it, cab driver isn't one that's going to get special attention, just because it's the current one on the list. It's only a "career" for a small subset of those who do it. Few when they are young dream of growing up to be a cab driver, or invest extensively in education for it. And it's a job (pro driver, though mostly truck driving) that kills around 4,000 people a year, more than any job other than doctor. Most of those 4,000 are the drivers themselves.
Is that the first job to protect in the upheaval to come?
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u/Keokuk37 6d ago
on the ground you can ask and they will tell you about all the collisions AVs have caused
details? there are none
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u/reddit-frog-1 6d ago
Yet, my last Uber driver picked me up in a Tesla and used FSD for the entire ride. 🤣
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 6d ago
Sure it wasn't a cybercab with safety monitor? 😂 CA still requires safety monitors for Teslas
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u/Schnitzhole 1d ago
I’d prefer the newer FSD over 99% of the uber drivers Ive had. The only thing i’ve found it really struggles with is last 500ft navigation
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u/ThrowawayFIRE2025 6d ago
AVs could very easily increase the job market for uber drivers. They might create enough momentum for ride sharing that most people don’t buy a car and just rely on rideshares. In that world, it’s possible AVs might take the lion’s share but still leave enough edge cases that demand for uber drivers increases.
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u/HablaCarnage 1d ago
I use FSD as a safety and productivity enhancer for my Uber driving. I plan to replace myself with two or three personally-owned CyberCabs at the first opportunity
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u/Original-Condition77 3d ago
I always take Waymo whenever I'm in the service area. Never a regular rideshare unless I have to go somewhere with no Waymo or public transit access.
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u/Agitated_Syllabub346 5d ago
Jesus you are one smug prick.
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 5d ago
Jesus was actually the opposite of a smug prick from what I hear?
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u/FrankScaramucci 5d ago
No, seriously, "smug prick" describes exactly what I felt while reading that post. The motivation that I feel behind that post is much closer to "I want to feel superior" than "I genuinely want to help".
FTR, I've been a fan of self-driving cars for 15 years.
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u/burritomiles 6d ago
AV's are profitable? That is news to me!
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u/Doggydogworld3 5d ago
Waymo trips are almost certainly profitable. They don't deliver nearly enough trips to offset their staggering R&D/SG&A costs, though. My guess is they'll need 30k cars for that, and I'm much more likely to be too low than too high.
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u/Emotional_Day_998 6d ago
Honestly with AI demand increasing the chip prices and there being better jobs to replace like software engineers.
They won't be out of a job anytime soon. Maybe after all high paying jobs get lost and we still have extra chip production the prices will come down enough to make building a taxi worth it.
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 6d ago
Not tomorrow, but over the next decade... 100% they are at significant risk
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u/oceanspraymammoth 6d ago
Many uber drivers don’t intent to be driving for another decade. I still think in a decade we will need a lot of paid human drivers
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u/LegendTheo 6d ago
You don't know what you're talking about. Chips are not some interchangable commodity that got expensive. There are all sorts of products made in all sorts of processes. Some of them got real expensive due to a massive spike in demand from data centers.
The chips that Tesla uses for FSD for instance are not getting priced out due to demand. FSD for them is just a software problem, they can already afford all the hardware, and prices are poised to go down not up.
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u/Whoisthehypocrite 5d ago
What nonsense. Tesla AI5 just had its memory capacity cut due to prices of memory and it is also being made on leading edge nodes where wafer prices have gone crazy.
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u/LegendTheo 5d ago
Several things. They reduced the LPDDR5, in the new AI chips somewhat due to capacity. They are using newer nodes, but they already have capacity set aside for those. That alogns with my statement that "some of them got real expensive due to a massive spike in demand".
Self driving cars do not need AI 5 and 6, which are much more memory hungry and on the newer nodes. They need AI4 which uses older processes but is good enough for a lvl 5 autonomous vehicle.
Which all ignores the work on terafab, which will handily solve this problem in a few years even on the newer AI chips.
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u/Whoisthehypocrite 5d ago
Are you sure AI4 is sufficient for level 4, it has been reported that the robotaxis are not running standard FSD hardware. I'll believe it when a9 wine does a teardown. I still see enough videos of safety critical intervention on customer cars running AI4.
And if you think Terafab will sort anything out, I have a bridge to sell you.
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u/Emotional_Day_998 5d ago
I am so glad I don't have to answer the other guy because you do it in my stead. This comment is kudos from me to you.
Thanks
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u/oceanspraymammoth 6d ago
Well Robotaxis are not yet impacting uber drivers, and they may never will, atleast not in the ways people think.
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u/RipWhenDamageTaken 6d ago
Sad? More or less sad than you bickering with Uber drivers?
If you’re right they would’ve felt the impact by now. Stop with the “just you wait” attitude. It’s been over 10 years of development for self driving cars. The official robotaxi launch was over a year ago. Waymo for far longer. Let’s stop pretending that Waymo is a random nobody. They’re backed by one of the most powerful companies in the entire world history.
If you’re right you wouldn’t even need to argue.
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 6d ago edited 6d ago
So if something takes more than a few years it'll never happen is your thesis? Lol there has been significant progress and implementation in the past 12 months and a ton of plans for the next 12 months alone much less the next 5-10 years.
Want to know the future 1 year out? Look at China.
I forgot how uniformed and skeptical the average person is. Alas, I tried.
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u/RipWhenDamageTaken 6d ago
You tried what? You tried to argue online? Don’t act like you did something impactful.
Again with the “just you wait” attitude. I’ve been watching this field develop for 10 years. Eventually, yeah, Uber drivers will be out of a job, but you’re better off warning the kindergarteners, not the current work force.
FYI I was in China just 3 months ago. Booking a human driver is far easier and more readily available.
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u/ReasonablyWealthy 6d ago
Riders don't want them, that part is true. But that's because most people are stupid.
Fact is, they are significantly safer, and not having to pay human drivers means costs will eventually decrease after the R&D is taken care of. Autonomous vehicles are the future but they're not going to be widely accepted for decades primarily because of the aforementioned stupidity.
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 6d ago
Hence the 5-10+ years most experts give for significant saturation here in the U.S. of course, it will be a "slow" steady decline for Uber drivers, not necessarily a cliff
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u/Jumpy-Impact3265 6d ago
Eliminating drivers eliminates jobs and not just the drivers. Fast food takes a HUGE hit because drivers eat where it's most convenient. Robotaxis don't buy snacks when they top off. Now gas stations go under because demand for fuel is less AND they've lost a significant revenue stream. Now we've lost more jobs. THEN you lose the jobs the recently unemployed people were making possible. It's a cascading ripple effect that will touch everyone.
Like when a manufacturing plant goes dark EVERYTHING around it takes a hit, too. The fast food nearby? The gas station? The cleaners? Anything people patronized that was on the way to and from the plant now die.
Look around you. It takes a special kind of willful ignorance to not see the issue here: one industry disappears, then other jobs disappear and then NO ONE CAN AFFORD TO RIDE IN A ROBOTAXI and the robotaxi companies lose revenue and go under and entire the issue becomes moot.
Pay attention.
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u/Seaker42 5d ago
And new industries are formed to take advantage of slack in the labor force. 100 years ago, most of the population worked on farms, but farm automation and equipment improvements made those jobs obsolete - now only about 2% work on farms.
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u/Otherwise-Nobody8252 6d ago
They aren't really that much safer. AV operate in much less dangerous situations generally. We still don't have any of them in a "winter" city yet and many don't operate at night or even during mild weather... All situations you still expect cars and taxi/ubers to run in.
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u/Interesting_Gas_163 6d ago
So Denver isn’t a winter city anymore?? Also where’s your sources on those claims regarding it being not that much safer?
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 6d ago
They operate in urban city environments... That's as rough as it gets. Sure, there are some edge cases and training still needed like winter driving 100%
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u/Own_Philosopher_605 6d ago
No 30 mph urban grids aren’t as rough as it gets lmao.
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 6d ago
What is then?
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u/Own_Philosopher_605 6d ago
Do you think I’m Google?
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 6d ago
Clearly not, because Google says urban driving is the most challenging. So again I ask you, since you allege otherwise, show me your claims and support them.
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u/oceanspraymammoth 6d ago
Riders do want them. I think that’s the most obvious part
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u/Chronotheos 6d ago
71% “Not too/Not at all” comfortable.
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u/oceanspraymammoth 6d ago
This survey is non sense. And not even relevant. I am not going to continue to entertain ridiculous data like this .
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u/Chronotheos 6d ago
Cope and seethe. And sell your TSLA stock. That guy is a clown and a liar.
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u/oceanspraymammoth 6d ago
I’m not supporting Tesla. I agree musk is a liar. We are most likely not on the same page at all
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u/UMP45_My_Waifu 6d ago
We aint out of touch. Its that we BELIEVE in the people to reject and RISEUP against those hedious robocars!
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 6d ago
Good luck...but I don't think your protest will matter much under the foot of skynet on your neck 😂
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u/cesarthegreat 6d ago
I agree Waymo’s look horrendous. But the CuberCab is sleek. I’ll take 10/10 times. I want to buy a few for myself. Beautiful cars.
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u/Opening_Wolverine_89 6d ago
The idea that robotaxis are going to eliminate human drivers is ridiculous. Lots of people will still need a human driver to load their luggage. Lots of people want to have conversation with a human, lots of people want a specific route they can tell the human driver. Robotaxis will never be able to do those things. So robotaxis will hurt human driver income significantly but it will never completely replace them.
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u/Seaker42 5d ago
They won't eliminate all human drivers, but they will take most of their jobs over the next decade. The reality is, a lot of riders would prefer to not have a human they don't know driving them - and this is especially true with Uber because their drivers have a bad rep (not sure if it's justified, but I know a lot of women and elderly people that won't use that service).
By the way, I'm saying this as someone that likes to talk to taxi drivers - but I can't think of anyone else at the company I work at, or my friends that feel this way - everyone else I know just wants to be left alone when in a taxi.
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u/Acrobatic-Price-5357 5d ago
I don't trust the tech at all, i'm a software engineer and its going to take a lot to make me trust one of these things. Especially one that forgoes additional sensors like radar and lidar for ego reasons, It'll be a long time before I or my family ever sets foot in one
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u/Seaker42 5d ago edited 5d ago
I suggest going to a Tesla shop and getting a demo of FSD - it's truly amazing tech. It does 99% of our driving and we haven't done a safety intervention since 14.2 came out late last year - about 30k miles ago.
I've also been in software for a few decades and one of the top developers I've ever worked with uses FSD for all of their driving.
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u/Acrobatic-Price-5357 5d ago
I can go to r/TeslaFSD and see dozens of peoples posts everyday where FSD does crazy dangerous shit or damages the car trying to park. i don't need to BE in a plane crash to recognize one.
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u/Seaker42 5d ago
You can listen to social media and find sites that say whatever you want to hear. Personally, I listened to friends using the product, then tried it myself. That's why I suggested going to a Tesla shop and trying it for yourself.
Concerning data online, it's important to remember the software is continually being updated. I agree prior to v14 it was pretty sketchy, and even 14.1 wasn't as safe as I think it needed to be - but as of 14.2 I think it's been amazing and much safer than most drivers - especially at night when I personally need it most.
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u/Acrobatic-Price-5357 5d ago
I mean the fact its still being updated is part of my concern as well, if i released some code that had an error, fixing the error isn't a new improved version it was a fallout that needed fixing of the previous version. they created a black box "end to end neural network" that means they really don't know why its doing what it does, only that it took xyz input and made xyz decision - training the model is basically blind, you need to feed it exactly the right combination of driving data to learn whatever concept you're trying to fix, too much and edge cases turn into standard behavior, too little and you didn't correct the problem. more parameters improve what the model can understand but require more compute.
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u/Seaker42 5d ago
Any software product that does not get updated will fall behind the competition quickly (or in this case, allow competitors to catch up to FSD). I don't understand not wanting a product because it will be improved over time.
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u/Acrobatic-Price-5357 5d ago
I want a degree of perfection that updates would be YEARS apart for super specific edge cases for something I'm trusting my life with.
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u/Schnitzhole 1d ago
You basically described why it’s impossible to 100% solve but also exactly why humans are also bad at driving and potentially worse in the long run for the same reasons.
Self driving doesn’t have to be 100% flawless to be better and safer than humans.
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u/WeldAE 5d ago
It doesn't matter if you trust the tech. If there are no human Uber/Lyft/Taxi drivers and you need a ride, you aren't going to have much choice. Are you going to let your paranoia limit your ability to travel?
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u/Acrobatic-Price-5357 5d ago
Why won't i have my normal car that I drive myself?
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u/WeldAE 5d ago
Lots of reasons. Are you saying you never take Uber/Lyft/Taxis? Do you ever fly to another city and not rent a car? It's pretty common thing to do. I have 5 drivers and only 4 cars so I have to use Uber to fill the rare gap where I walk out to go to an appointment and there are not cars at the house. Last time I took my car to the shop I used Uber to get home rather than sit around.
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u/Acrobatic-Price-5357 5d ago
I'd rent a car, last time i dropped my car off i picked up a rental which my warrenty covers.
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u/Whoisthehypocrite 5d ago
Without regulation, the cost differential between driverless and driver will be too big to ignore. A trip to the airport for menun London din a robotaxi could easily come down to £30 versus £70-100 in a taxi currently. That is a big price to pay for someone to put your luggage in the car.
No one has a conversation with the bus driver or train driver, so why do they need none with a taxi driver. They will just phone a friend and not worry about the driver overhearing them. As for a specific route, well that can be easily built into an app.
I rember hearing self checkouts won't work and yet almost every supermarket has them in the UK now. And they inferior no benefit to the user.
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u/WeldAE 5d ago
You're talking about accessibility. That is why once fleets scale to the point they can justify a bespoke platform, it will be a low entry height carriage door style AV like Zoox or the GM Origin. I would hope most also have the ability for roll-on access which will be useful for everyone. You don't start out solving those problems, but at some point you start working on them. It will absolutely happen and driving for ride-share will not be a job much longer.
Of course people will still drive, but not for ride-share. Most households for the foreseeable future will still own at least one car.
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u/Original-Condition77 3d ago
Most people don't have enough time or money to take whatever route they want. As for the conversation piece, I'm sick of getting overly chatty rideshare drivers who ignore the headphones on my head. The only somewhat valid point you make is luggage.
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u/Acceptable_Tea281 6d ago
Yeah it’s actually not cool to mock some of the lowest earners of our society on their last Hail Mary before accepting poverty.
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u/Scary-Oven8260 6d ago
Wait until ChatGPT become better and all the legacy av technology like Waymo and Tesla get replaced
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u/cesarthegreat 6d ago
Way for sure, Tesla adapts… they’re not complacent
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u/Scary-Oven8260 6d ago
Legacy carmakers said they would adapt to EV as well…
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u/cesarthegreat 6d ago
The difference is Tesla actually takes action.
Good thing Tesla moves differently than legacy carmakers…
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u/DeadMoneyDrew 6d ago
LOL at the guy who took a "survey" of his own passengers as to whether or not they would take a Waymo. I take both Waymos and human driven rideshares. If the person who is getting paid to drive the car that I'm in asks me if I would consider taking a Waymo, I'll lie my fucking ass off and say no.