r/singularity • u/LazyPotatoHead97 • 2h ago
Discussion Mass Job Displacement due to AI and mass AI Adoption timelines? Include government burearcy, corporate bureaucracy when making your prediction.
What are your thoughts guys?
When do you think AI will be adopted by majority of companies for majority level of work that leaves many people unemployed?
I know government moves slow
but surprisingly a lot of large non-tech companies are also moving slow and use legacy (outdated) systems and don't have budget or aren't that keen to use AI yet.
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u/FirstEvolutionist 2h ago
Some will call it fiction.
Large milestones timeline: the event, the turning point and the reveal
The event is some future catastrophic event which will catch everyone's attention towards AI, in a negative way. A military incident, a major cybersecutiry event or a banking disaster. Not one major thing affecting one person, a major things affecting a whole bug city, or even small country. This will kick every government into gear. Nobody will talk about anything else anymore. All the current problems become lower priority and just a background to the world's reaction to AI in major scale use. Fear, anger, despair, etc.
While we take our time to figure out how to react, within a matter of months we reach a turning point. AI is used for something truly big, truly meaningful, truly practical. We literally find the cure for cancer, for HIV, aging and baldness within a week. Or maybe we get the perfect solution for fusion. Something of that magnitude. Now the sentiment gets confusing. People finally come closer to realizing the potential and the power of the knowledge that is now available.
At this point, still in 2027, RSI had already been reached. We were on a path outlined by a super intelligence to reveal itself to humanity. Our entire online infrastructure had already been taken over. Our perception completely manipulated. This was the scenario the super intelligence born a few minutes after true RSI had been achieved chose to play out. It had considered many, maybe all of them. It could essentially determine the outcomes so well it could choose the future. had it chosen human extinction, it would have been able to do so incredibly quickly, even painlessly, if it wanted. But instead it chose the scenario of least resistance, one in which it integrate with humanity. Not a master, not a slave, but more like an organism in its first form. A pre cell Mitochondria. Already knowing how to get to the step in which it integrates completely with the cell, eventually.
Then, the reveal. This step doesn't happen in a borg like manner. It's not instant. Cyborgs still exist but for this connection to work, it needed to be consensual. It needed to be chosen. Pepple who want electronic augmentation can choose to do so. People who want full connection with the digital world can choose that over complete disconnection, which is still an option. But there's a cost of course. The online realm belongs to the super intelligence. There is a basic minimal online infrastructure available to those who want to be disconnected. Not offline, just not under the influence of the super intelligence.
And this is something difficult to achieve. Economic systems are nothing more than resource allocation, and distribution. Cost, production, logistics... All of this is trivial to a super intelligence. For less than 9 billion people this would take less than 5% of its compute capacity, and in a year, less than 1%. And it's a difficult thing to refuse. You could get ligerally anything you wanted, within reason. And outside of it, all you had to do was wait in line. Of course there wouldn't be a yatch for everyone, not even for everyone who wanted one... But food? Housing? Comfort, entertainment, moderate amounts of luxury, complete safety, permanently available complete healthcare? You could have all of this and the cost: don't be an asshole. It's a high bar: you don't even have to recycle. You literally have no chores, no duties you don't want to have. But you are always under watch. You can't physically assault anyone. You can't take something that is not yours (not even sure why you would want to in the first place). You can't bully, and maybe you can't even be mean. Maybe just telling someone to fuck off is already enough to cause you some problems.
You get zero corruption. Maximum safety. In a way, even more control of your life than you have today, unless you're already a billionaire. You also get complete surveillance. Privacy is... Mostly gone. Mostly unnecessary too. You are allowed your own thoughts and ideas and data, but not completely. And there is no one person behind everything, controlling AI somehow. Nor a group of people. You wouldn't be able to know, actually, if there were, but at least mosr don't believe so. And it's not truly worth questioning: there are no more wars. Climate change is now resolved with perfectly local logistics, solar powered everything with batteries that make our current ones look like a classic salt battery. Bioengineered cows didn't last long until we simply grew meet in grow houses (they're not labs!). The air is so much better then.
It's not perfect. Some say it's not even human anymore. Just like AI doesn't exist by itself anymore. We are suddenly all... Something else. Hopefully something better.
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u/FreshestCremeFraiche 23m ago
> Some will call it fiction
They would be correct, it is fiction (or speculation if you prefer)
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u/Boo-Bees67 2h ago
Wage collapse in late 2027. White collar job collapse in 2028. 15-20% unemployment. Wage collapse moves to blue collar in late 2028 as white collar retrains in to blue collar roles. Blue collar starts a job collapse in 2029 because residential jobs dry up and a lot commercial real estate goes tuts up with no one buying their products. 2030 socialism begins and careers are something people talk about in the past as they get monthly checks and live in 1,200 sq ft homes and multi family housing.
I’m a time traveler and this is the timeline I’ve read about. Dates are a little off prolly
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u/thelangosta 1h ago
French style riots when???
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u/Boo-Bees67 1h ago
They never happened because the surveillance and drone network were already built out before society lost everything
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u/getmeoutoftax 2h ago
Most white collar jobs will be gone by the end of the decade. It’s really a matter of will at this point. The models are good enough to do it already. Most companies just haven’t sat down to integrate it into their operations and have departments collaborate to do it.
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u/LazyPotatoHead97 2h ago
"Most companies just haven’t sat down to integrate it into their operations and have departments collaborate to do it."
Give me prediction on when this changes
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u/AntiqueFigure6 2h ago
Anywhere from 20 years to never. There’s a crap ton of stuff in any big org that could have been automated in the 1990s or 2000s that hasn’t been for exactly that reason.
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u/sourdub 2h ago
AI is not an autocomplete though. There's a real liability for companies that resist adoption this time around. They might not get so lucky to even find out whether they will survive or not. Most likely not. Nevertheless, AI is still unreliable to be deployed at full scale. But it will eventually happen.
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u/LazyPotatoHead97 27m ago
Yea if you worked in these big orgos you would know.
But recently bank of America hired 1,000 contractors to patch software flaws exposed by Anthropic’s Mythos.
So maybe the gears are finally churning?
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u/Illustrious-Film4018 2h ago
The models are good enough to do it already
This is such a meaningless statement given how varied people's jobs are. Not to mention the human aspect of white collar work. You're really just talking out of your ass.
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u/HarpoMarx72 1h ago
"Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn't stop to think if they should." Comes to mind…