r/politics • u/ushaque • 8d ago

No Paywall Trump says he could be ‘last Republican president’

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6144713-donald-trump-republican-party-midterm-struggles/amp/
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u/gob384 America 8d ago

If the Dems became a 'uni party' it would probably not last more than 2-4 election cycles.

Either it would split with the 'moderate/ corporate' Dems camp vs the 'progressive' camp or the GOP would regain prevalence in a generation or so like they did post FDR

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u/DrocketX 8d ago edited 8d ago

There's absolutely no way it would take a generation. I remember after the 2008 election, there was discussion that Bush damaged the Republican party so badly that it would take decades for them to rebuild. Turns out it only took until 2010, when they made MASSIVE gains and took back the House.

Things now are completely different than they used to be, especially for Republicans. Part of that is Fox News, AM radio and other propaganda sources, that can keep their base motivated no matter what, part of it is how intertwined the party is with Christianity, but part of it is also the fact that the GOP has worked hard over the past several decades on the state and local level to control basically everything in a huge number of states. No matter how badly Trump fucks things up on the national level, the reality is that the Republican party isn't going to wind up in the wilds for a generation. They'll be back within 2 presidential elections, at the absolute outside. Realistically, probably one, when the unfortunate Democrat who takes Trump's place fails to solve every problem in the world within 3 days of taking office.

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u/bflo666 8d ago

This time the boomers won’t be around to pull it back. I (36, almost 37) grew up hearing that I’d become more conservative with age, and that’s the opposite of the truth. I don’t know anyone who has “become more conservative with age.”

I don’t know a single person who has become more conservative with time. I knew a few guys who immediately flipped onto MAGA back in 2015/16. I don’t know a single person who has experienced the past ten years and been convinced of the Republican Party.

Boomers loved Reagan. They got everything they could have dreamed of and held most of the money and a black guy raised their annual taxes a little and they brought on the antichrist.

By 2032, the age range for boomers will be 68-86. The most middle ranged boomer right now is 71. The Republican Party is not going to have the votes to win almost anywhere.

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u/HumptyDumptruckFire New Jersey 8d ago

That nonsense about becoming more conservative with age seems to be exclusively about the boomer generation, with maybe some hang in the generations immediately before and after. We live in entirely different times than they did with entirely new problems. And those problems require bolder solutions than fucking conservatism could ever hope to answer.

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u/delightfulPastellas 8d ago

It's also because what's "conservative" changes with time. I likely will be considered conservative in 70 years when my grandchildren try to debate me over installing nanobots into my brain for health reasons.

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u/OpheliaRainGalaxy 8d ago

Most "conservative" person I knew growing up was probably my mother. She mostly believed in old fashioned gender roles even though she sucked at traditional goals for ladies, attended church three times a week for years, and deliberately got a TV with a V-chip when those were a thing so she could avoid accidentally exposing herself to shows she wouldn't approve of anyhow.

Roughly 2005, I was a teenager and started crying because "my womany never came in!" Once mom got me calmed down she started asking questions, including "Do you feel like you're a boy?" and which pronouns I'd prefer. Ended up changing my nickname to Daughter Person to remind me that I'm "a person and it's fine!" Neither of us knew terms like trans or non-binary, closest we had to work with was the very impolite "crossdresser."

So you can imagine how confusing it's been for me, watching the religious folks start frothing in rage over the idea that not everyone is strictly very male or very female. Like my mom would tell stories about the "very nice young man" or lady who helped her at a store, but occasionally it was "very nice young person." Which I understood the first time I met someone who was openly non-binary, because I too would feel uncomfortable calling that nice young person either a man or lady. Neither word fit right.

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u/WildRecommendation51 7d ago

Thank you for sharing that touching story. I really wish the people of the world had more respect for each other, and realized that it IS fine, we are all people, and that all different kinds of people exist. It just IS that way. I loved reading your story. Your mom sounds like a wonderful person.

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u/BPD_trash_panda 6d ago

No.... dude, conservatism moved way far to the right since 2000. I used to be a republican in the late 90s. Literally not a single one of my views changed. Now I'm left. Far left. Back then they didn't cry constantly about LGBTQ (I guess because they had no rights, but even then there was room to be a pro LGBQ republican because it wasn't a wedge issue, it was a social issue and those were largely ignored up until the late 90s) and abortion wasn't quite the big deal it became later. They were also way more reasonable on welfare, medicaid, medicare and unions. They all changed their views to whatever the talking heads on Fox news told them to and now they stand for nothing but hate and bigotry. There's nowhere for moderates right now. Nowhere.

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u/delightfulPastellas 6d ago

In the past people were way more homophobic than now. It's only a wedge issue because they want to go back to the way things were. They weren't asking "should we legalize discrimination against trans people" because the answer was already yes and everybody took that as a given.

If you weren't homophobic in the past as a Republican I think you were an outlier. It was a drastic shift. I don't think it was as hateful, but it certainly was more of a "Of course they shouldn't get married, what do you mean?"

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u/shinkouhyou 8d ago

People imagine that every boomer was an anti-war flower power hippie during their youth, when in reality the hippies were a fairly small movement and only the older half of the boomer cohort were old enough to meaningfully participate in hippie counterculture during its height.

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u/footie_ruler 8d ago

I don’t think this is necessarily true. I think I am more right wing now than what I was when I was in college. But the Overton window has shifted to such an insane degree that Republicans are basically techno fascists with a sprinkling of christofascism thrown in, and I’m sorry, but I’ll never be that right wing even if I live to be a 1000 years old.

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u/ProtectionVirtual225 8d ago

As someone approaching 71, about half of boomers are Dems or vote for Dems. The older people in that cohort tend to be more conservative, but younger seniors are still heavily D and still liberal. You'd be surprised at how many are progressives.

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u/BasedAspergers 8d ago

You do get more conservative with advanced lead poisoning age though

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u/jjschnei 7d ago

Repubs and Dems have moved right on a lot of policy issues over time e.g. taxes, wealth distribution, social programs, civil liberties, police power, surveillance state, etc. They’ve also moved left on some social issues. You could stay with the same party you were with in your 20s and still become de facto more conservative.

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u/BPD_trash_panda 6d ago

It's all the leaded gasoline and nutritionally devoid baby formula. more than 50% of them were formula fed... these days this isn't an issue, but back then? The formula was only calories for the most part, no vitamins or essential amino acids. Nowadays the formula is more complete and complicated, back then it was just straight up dehydrated cows milk or even malted milk. Don't tell me it didn't make them stupid. It did.

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u/FryDay444 Wisconsin 8d ago

Seriously. Same age, and I went from left-leaning libertarian in college to full blown progressive.

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u/TheoreticalUser 8d ago

I was a libertarian after high school.

Now I am pro workplace democracy (market socialism).

I am a married man with children and a career that's old enough to legally vote.

Fuck Republicans. Fuck the GOP. Fuck conservatives. Fuck capitalism. And fuck fascism.

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u/IWouldBangAynRand 8d ago

Libertarians got off the train of thought at the first couple stops.

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u/Rebyll 8d ago

This is a fallacy. Every generation has said "When the old people die, we'll have progress," and it never sticks. There are always enough people who vote conservative coming up in each generation to continue the cycle. Without exception.

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u/DrocketX 8d ago

But we have made progress, and continue to make progress. The issue is that liberals always think there will be sudden massive changes that completely transform the world almost overnight, and that's completely unrealistic. Even when there is somewhat rapid change, it's inevitably followed by a backlash (which is really where we're at now: the Trump administration is very much a backlash against the strides made by minorities and the LGBTQ community over the past few decades.) Ultimately, though, progress is made, but it's always incremental.

Ultimately, real progress isn't measured across years or decades, and even generations only begins to be the scale at which humanity advances. Real change is measured across centuries and millennia.

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u/Bunerd 7d ago

This whole Trump thing is creating an entire generation of activist LGBTQ. Instead of getting what they want and suppressing us. Since we're real people with real dynamics, any conversation about LGBTQ spreads LGBTQ. Even hateful conversations. Trump has done more to help people understand they're transgender than I could ever do. Purely because he cannot shut up about us. This gets eggs thinking about us, which triggers dysphoria, which helps people realize they're trans.

It's a backlash, sure. But have you considered the backlash to the backlash?

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u/Critical_Fact_2543 7d ago

We was only country at un assembly that wanted to take away women's rights....the only country in the un 🌎

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u/bflo666 8d ago

My grandparents were alive when the Irish could be discriminated against. Basically every generation has advanced a more equal society. Women’s right to vote, labor rights, civil rights, new deal… Boomers sacrificed some progress for a third car.

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u/OpheliaRainGalaxy 8d ago

My favorite auntie has a story about the time she got in trouble for wearing pants as a teenager.

By the 90s, I was living in jeans and had to ask adults why the grandma ghost on Mulan said "crossdresser" like it was a swear word. Like being a "tomboy" didn't get me even slightly scolded until highschool, when folks started saying I was too old for it.

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u/etherealtwo 8d ago

We have always had progress. Society is exceptionally more liberal than it was 50 years ago. Conservatism has only ever slowed that down.

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u/AJDx14 America 8d ago

It’s not a boomer problem it’s a Capital problem. Capital is still going to be around even after every boomer is long dead, and will always be motivated to fuck over the average American. The Republican Party might die by name but it’ll always live on in spirit.

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u/geomaster 8d ago

the current republican party is NOT 'conservative'. they pretend to be but take a look at their actions:

maxing out the deficit-->maxed out National Debt over 40 TRILLION

The republicans HATE FREE MARKETS. they always have massive government overreach and complete interventions in the market. So many TARIFFS, or maybe not or maybe there will be. complete chaos

Having federal government to partially NATIONALIZE corporations through federal government purchases of corporate equity.

Intervening in private corporate negotiations such as nvidia and AMD so that he gets a cut of revenue.

republicans and trump administration hate FREE SPEECH and FREE Press. the list here goes on and on.

oh and trump administration and republicans trying to align with russia and DICTATORSHIPS instead of supporting free democratic nations. IT's insane. these people went from despising the soviet union to now parroting russian bot talking points

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u/bflo666 8d ago

Have you considered that the ideas of conservatives, small gov’t, free markets, free speech, etc, are just engines to allow them to do all of the things mentioned if needed to ensure the old and traditional order of things is maintained?

It’s an ideology. If enacted as policies, it takes away liberties or abilities of individuals and businesses whose progress has been deemed too quick or not maintaining values.

To be a conservative, you have to believe that there was a previous state, or patchwork of previous and current states, whose conditions must be met to ensure the norm is kept.

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u/raptearer 8d ago

The problem is as they leave the work force they have more free time to go to public meetings for city councils and other governning bodies that allow them to influence policy still. It's why policy always seems to favor the old and NIMBYs: they have the free time to go to these meetings, while others don't. Until they're completely gone, we're still going to be dealing with their generational agenda

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u/iJon_v2 8d ago

Really? I know so many people my age who have either suddenly become conservative or gotten way more conservative. A lot of people that used to vote Democrat have switched.

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u/bflo666 8d ago

The sudden ones happened - mostly 10 years ago. Anyone I know who dabbled in the “well let’s hear them out” talk is back. The “independent” voters flipped on him.

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u/SchuminWeb Maryland 8d ago

I don’t know anyone who has “become more conservative with age.”

I feel like I've become more libertarian with age, but not more conservative.

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u/lastres0rt Georgia 8d ago

You don't actually become conservative as you get older.

Disadvantaged groups (that coincidentally lean liberal) die younger.

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u/Own_Junket3201 8d ago

well, I think you need to get out and meet more people, there are literally 10's of thousands of people your same age moving from an Obama voter to a trump voter... Ive seen it many times and the data backs it up. Trump got the popular vote! That means, as people get older, they voted more in line with conservatives i.e trump votes.

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u/bad_piglet 8d ago

I agree. I've become more conservative with money, but that's it. I've become far more liberal or progressive as I've aged in just about everything else. I just really don't like seeing people suffer, and that's enough for me to hold my nose at higher taxes as I pull the lever for the most liberal candidates.

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u/Internal_Rice3739 8d ago

I think you guys underestimate how horrible Gen X actually is. I’d say they’re arguably worse than the Boomers

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u/Critical_Fact_2543 7d ago

Boomers will be dead by then...my dad's a 78 year old boomer...he ain't the greatest gen.

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u/Purple_Haze 8d ago

Is it not a Winston Churchill quote: "He who is not a conservative at twenty has no brain, he who is not a socialist at forty has no heart."

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u/FlufferTheGreat 8d ago

If the Dems broke the propaganda machine that holds the Republicans together, this country would be so much better off.

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u/Afraid-Detective1222 8d ago

The only way to break that propaganda machine is going to be not only to break up the various "news" outlets they use, but to also censor the hell out of social media. I do find it interesting how in the last couple of days, things have been less insane now that that russian bot farm is offline. It was the same during the first Iran fight last summer, Iran's internet was down and the lunacy was less online.

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u/Blackthorn79 8d ago

There will be a republican party as long as there's someone to pay into it. They might change their messaging, but they will still carry water for their ultra wealthy donors. 

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u/The_time_it_takes 8d ago

I didn’t think Bush was a good president and hated his public speaking. But I now look back on his presidency with a longing nostalgia.

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u/BubbleBreeze 8d ago

Conspiracy Theory time. After GWB cornholed the country, the republicans feared no republican would be elected again.  So they do what they do best, and play the long game by infiltrating the DNC and democratic party with conservative operatives. They don't fight back with messaging,  many are coming out as conservatives like kyrsten sinema and John Letterman., and they keep moving center right and saying they need to be more centrist to get the conservative voters that don't support Trump. We need to oust the current democrats or do the same thing and pretend to be conservatives. 

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u/cytherian New Jersey 7d ago

A black man as as POTUS made it very easy for them, because racism is in their zeitgeist.

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u/e_pilot 8d ago

My guess is the dems become the right wing party and the DSA and DSA adjacent candidates spin off a new left wing

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u/21Rollie 8d ago

DSA sniff their own shit too much to become a proper party. They’ve run in a local election near me and their candidate sounds like a Fox News caricature with a platform including: we’re gonna cap all rent to 10% of income and give 100% taxpayer funded abortions to all. Not even rent increase control like mamdani, full on setting the price nationally for rent.

The DSA platform is written by pretty much anybody with a grievance, to be reviewed whenever, and with complete and strict adherence required. That’s why they’re even coming at mamdani in NYC now because he didn’t arrest Netanyahu (as if he really had that authority). I’m progressive myself 95% of the time but I could never be associated with all that.

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u/maroontiefling Massachusetts 8d ago

I think we would see the DSA make an attempt at being a real party, rather than a sub-party, for sure.

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u/InTooManyWays 8d ago

We’re already living in a Republican uni party. One side is fascist one side is moderately conservative 

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u/Specialist-Spray-825 8d ago

The moderate/corporate Dems splitting from the Progressive/DSA Dems would be the most likely scenario.

However, I do see the GOP double-downing into oblivion, going even more far-right, and pushing openly racist/neo-nazi types in the future. We have a long way to go before the Republican Party goes the way of the Whigs.

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u/aerost0rm 8d ago

Th is will ultimately be the way if we don’t get corporate America and oligarch money out of the Democratic Party

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u/AZ-FWB Arizona 8d ago

Yup, that’s my prediction too.

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u/DoomBot5 8d ago

This is what I really hope happens. We drop the lunatics in the Republican party, and just split the Democratic party. Maybe then I'll finally feel less icky about my votes.

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u/postmodest 8d ago

It'd split into the DSA and the Big Tent Newsom Neoliberals.

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u/SchuminWeb Maryland 8d ago

If the Dems became a 'uni party' it would probably not last more than 2-4 election cycles.

It's happened once before, where the Democrats (then called Republicans) were the only party, back in the 1810s and 1820s during the so-called "era of good feelings". That lasted a few election cycles, and then the party fractured into two camps, with the Jackson side's becoming Democrats, and the Adams side's calling themselves National Republicans.

All that said, you are absolutely right.

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u/Beneficial-Rip6624 8d ago

Well, if the current existing GOP has to share a party with "corporate" democrats, that would be the end for progressives.

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u/Waibles 8d ago

It shouldn’t even take that long. As soon as there is a gap in the two party system a populist faction will fill it. Whether that comes from the left or the right I can’t tell you.

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u/zoidbergular 7d ago

Ronald Reagan won his terms with 489 and 525 electoral votes, and 8 years later we had 2 terms of Bill Clinton. Things change fast here.