since this is a sub that occasionally discusses politics
In 2024, Joe Biden and the Democrats had a straightforward economic case they could make for re-election. Yes, the US economy was still shaking off the dual hammer blows of the COVID pandemic, and then the resultant inflation from efforts to counter said pandemic. Still, the US was doing better than any other developed nation- unemployment was low, wage growth was steady, and we hadn't entered a recession like many other countries.
We will never know whether voters would actually have bought this argument due to Joe Biden being decrepit, followed by Kamala's abbreviated candidacy. Still, we could see from exit polling that Americans weren't giving Dems any credit for the economy. "We suck less than everyone else" is a rough re-election slogan, even if it is objectively true.
Fast forward to today.
If you had told 2024 me that the economic conditions prior to the midterms were 1) steady but slow inflation and 2) relatively low unemployment, I'd have predicted that a good night for the Democrats would be taking the House, defending all their open Senate seats, and picking off one of Maine or North Carolina. Nowhere near enough to take the Senate, but enough to put a 2028 trifecta at least in play. Instead, what we are seeing is a near double-digit lead for the Democrats on the generic ballot, exposing Republican vulnerabilities deep into red territory. Most remarkably, in what must be a first in all the years I've been following politics, the Democrats are beating Republicans in polls of which party voters trust more on the economy (a stat Republicans usually dominate by like a 2:1 margin). Voters don't seem to be giving Republicans any credit for anything positive economically, with their trademark legislation, the OBBB, getting tepid reviews. This despite the most punishing aspects of the bill rather brazenly set to not take effect until after the midterms.
The caveat is always of course whether the polls are correct, but Republicans sure seem to be taking them seriously given their spending patterns and where they are sending their surrogates.
This predictably has infuriated Donald Trump, whose oversize ego is already primed not to accept criticism. His go-to strategy seems to be to tell everyone how great the economy actually is, and that you must be stupid not to see it. Affordability is a hoax, and we should be climbing over each other to thank him for how great the stock market and our 401ks are doing. Basically, a harsher version of what would have been the Dems' 2024 message.
Just as predictably, the US electorate doesn't seem to be buying the argument. The bottom line is that just like 2024, the US economy is actually doing decently- but Americans sure don't feel that way.
Is it because voters are penalizing the Republicans for financial miscues like tariffs and the Iran War, and that although the economy is OK it should really be doing even better?
Is it because nationwide economic performance doesn't necessarily translate into individual prosperity, particularly for the lower class?
Is it because of legacy and social media constantly driving a doom-and-gloom narrative?
Is it really just the price of gas?
I don't get it.