r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 3d ago

Areas to watch: Champi, Trudy, Wati Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 19-25 October 2026

1 Upvotes

Active cyclones

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

29W: Typhoon Champi

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

21E: Hurricane Trudy

Southeastern Pacific Ocean

01P: Cyclone Wati

Active disturbances

Northern Indian Ocean

Invest 96A

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of cyclonic turning positioned far off the coast of Somalia is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is currently in a quasi-stationary state, embedded within the opposing wind flow between two mid-level ridges, and will likely remain so for the next few days. Although environmental conditions remain favorable, with moderate easterly vertical wind shear offset by warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence, model guidance suggests that the disturbance will be slow to develop over the next few days, if it develops at all. As the storm starts to move northwestward later this week, mid-level moisture is likely to decrease substantially.

The potential for this system to become a tropical depression or storm by the end of the week remains low.

Southern Indian Ocean

Invest 93S

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure positioned over the Seychelles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving westward along the northern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge positioned to the south and will gradually turn west-southwestward over the next couple of days before turning southwestward in response to a shift in the position of the steering ridge. Environmental conditions remain generally favorable, with weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and abundant mid-level moisture.

The potential for this system to become a tropical depression or storm by the end of the week is moderate.

Areas of potential development

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Disturbance 1 – Off the coast of the eastern United States

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the waters off the eastern and northeastern coasts of the United States for potential subtropical cyclone development later this week. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad non-tropical low is active off the coast of North Carolina. Moisture wrapping around this low is expected to bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts over the next couple of days. Later this week, this system is expected to drift northward and northeastward and deepen, creating a persistent and strong onshore wind flow which will cause moderate coastal flooding, life-threatening surf conditions, and beach erosion.

The potential for this system to become a subtropical storm by the end of the week is moderate.

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

Disturbance 1 — Off the coast of southern Mexico

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the waters far off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico for potential tropical cyclone development later this week. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad surface trough positioned far to the west of Panama is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is likely to develop within this area of enhanced convection over the next day or so and drift westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned over Mexico. Environmental conditions remain favorable in this region and should allow for steady development.

The potential for this system to become a tropical depression or storm by the end of the week remains high.

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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

▼ Violent Typhoon (H5) | 145 knots (165 mph) | 911 mbar Champi (29W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

12 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Typhoon Champi (29W), which remains active over the western Pacific Ocean.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Champi remains a very powerful and well-organized cyclone, with a dense ring of deep convection surrounding a large and clear eye. The storm continues to move west-northwestward under the steering influence of a deep-layered subtropical ridge positioned to the northeast. Although model guidance appears to be in general agreement that the storm will continue to move in this direction for the next 36 to 48 hours, there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the track forecast after Friday.

Traditional physics-based models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF, ICON, and UKMET) suggest that Champi will continue to move west-northwestward toward Taiwan and the coast of southeastern China over the upcoming weekend, while AI-powered models (e.g., AI-GFS, AIFS, and Google’s DeepMind and GenCast models) project that Champi will make an aggressive northward turn on Friday, moving across the Yaeyama Islands, transiting the East China Sea, and turning toward the northeast early next week. Both the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) seem to favor this track scenario.

Environmental conditions are likely to remain highly favorable for the next 36 to 48 hours, allowing Champi to at least maintain strength, though fluctuations in intensity are possible as the storm undergoes further eyewall replacement cycles. Although weak vertical wind shear will persist beyond Friday, the storm will move across progressively cooler waters later in the week and will begin to weaken. While the storm is not expected to reach the Yaeyama Islands at full strength, it is projected to be the equivalent strength of a Category 3 major hurricane.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

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33 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5h ago

▲ Subtropical Storm | 55 knots (65 mph) | 990 mbar Josephine (10L — Northern Atlantic) (Off the U.S. East Coast)

20 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Subtropical Storm Josephine (10L), which is active over the subtropical western Atlantic.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the frontal boundaries associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure situated far off the coast of the northeastern United States have dissipated and the low itself has developed subtropical characteristics. The storm, which has been named Josephine by the National Hurricane Center, is moving slowly northward today as a mid-level shortwave ridge passes to its north. Josephine is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west on Thursday.

Further interaction with this trough is likely to lead to intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours, but is likely to transition Josephine into a full-fledged extratropical cyclone by Thursday. Although the storm is expected to remain far offshore through the upcoming weekend, its wind field will be expansive, leading to strong winds along the coasts of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. Furthermore, strong onshore flow associated with Josephine will result in coastal flooding and life-threatening surf conditions and rip currents along the coast for the next few days.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 30% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development far to the southwest of Hawaiʻi

10 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Depression Twenty-two (22E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an area of low pressure positioned several hundred kilometers off the coast of southern Mexico has become better organized this morning and has developed into a tropical depression. The newly-formed depression is moving slowly westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned over Mexico; however, it is expected to undergo a very slow northwestward turn over the next few days as the ridge migrates eastward. The depression is expected to remain offshore for the next five days.

Environmental conditions remain favorable over this portion of the eastern Pacific. A combination of weak easterly vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence should fuel steady development over the next few days, bringing this system to tropical storm strength later today and to hurricane strength on Thursday. This system is expected to reach its peak intensity as a Category 3 major hurricane on Friday before a modest increase in vertical wind shear allows drier air to penetrate its circulation.

This system has the potential for rapid intensification based on statistics-based models.

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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 10% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the subtropical central Atlantic

10 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the waters of the subtropical central Atlantic for potential tropical cyclone development. A trough of low pressure situated several hundred kilometers to the southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This system, which has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area by the National Hurricane Center, is drifting north-northeastward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned to the east and may continue to move in this direction for the next few days.

Environmental conditions may support some brief and gradual development over the next couple of days, but the chances for further development will drop considerably at the end of the week as this system reaches stronger shear and cooler waters.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/ComfortableAthlete34 • 6h ago

Satellite Imagery | Satellite Liaison Blog Hurricane Isaias Satellite Recap

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5 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 4h ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Super Typhoon Champi - October 20, 2026

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3 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5h ago

▲ Tropical Storm | 35 knots (40 mph) | 1003 mbar Vance (22E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

3 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Vance (22E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis reveal that a tropical depression situated far from the coast of southern Mexico has strengthened into a tropical storm. The storm, which has been named Vance by the National Hurricane Center, is moving slowly west-northwestward under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge positioned over Mexico. Over the next few days, Vance will turn northwestward as a deep-layered longwave passes well to the north and pushes the steering ridge eastward. Vance is expected to remain offshore to the south and southwest of Mexico for the next five days.

Vance is moving through an oceanic and atmospheric environment which is conducive to rapid intensification and is likely to reach hurricane strength by late Thursday evening. A combination of weak easterly vertical wind shear, abundant atmospheric moisture, warm sea-surface temperatures, and strong upper-level divergency may bring Vance to Category 3 major hurricane strength by the end of the week. Over the upcoming weekend, increasing shear and decreasing mid-level moisture could start to weaken the storm.

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3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

▲ Severe Tropical Storm (TS) | 50 knots (60 mph) | 997 mbar Agueda (02S — Southwestern Indian) (Near the Seychelles)

2 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for Cyclone Agueda (02S), which is active over the southwestern Indian Ocean.

Cyclone Agueda, which is currently situated just west of Seychelles, is steadily becoming better organized. The storm is moving west-southwestward under the steering influence of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge positioned over Madagascar and will briefly turn southwestward over the next day or so as a near-equatorial ridge builds to the west. Agueda will likely resume a west-southwestward movement on Thursday as a subtropical ridge strengthens to the south of the storm.

Agueda is moving through a moderately favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. The storm is expected to go through a brief period of steady intensification over the next couple of days and reach its peak intensity on Thursday evening. After that point, decreasing atmospheric moisture and decreasing sea-surface temperatures will cause the storm to gradually weaken. Agueda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday evening.

Official information

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/ReflectionOk9644 • 2d ago

Question On storm surge forecast

15 Upvotes

For wind and rainfall forecast, I could find these forecasts for pretty much any location on Earth using multiple models like ECMWF, GFS, ICON, etc... For storm surge though forecast though it's only available for location on US coastline. So why does it happen, and how could we expand that type of forecast for other locations?

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/UltraPlinian • 4d ago

Radar Imagery Refectivity showing Typhoon Champi's intense inner core missing just to the south of Guam's southern coastline.

48 Upvotes

Guam is incredibly lucky here as it appears Champi is further intensifying as the inner core passes by just to the south. Notice the intense mesovorticies rotating around the inner edge of the eyewall. In the last frame, you will see a very well-defined meso with bright purple reflectivity in the NW quadrant of the eye. Champi is most likely about to be a super typhoon, if not already. Again, Guam is getting incredibly lucky here despite the impacts they are experiencing.

Edit: Title should spell "Reflectivity."

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Apprehensive_Cut2880 • 4d ago

Satellite Imagery Typhoon Champi rapidly organizes into very powerful super typhoon south of Guam

21 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/dBasement • 4d ago

Question Could someone please explain this anomaly?

20 Upvotes

I see this funnel of very strong winds blowing south between the Caribbean and Pacific whenever there is a hurricane, or even stormy weather in the Pacific.

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 3d ago

Dissipated Trudy (21E — Eastern Pacific) (West of Mexico)

2 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Hurricane Trudy (21E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Hurricane Trudy is maintaining strength as a Category 2 hurricane off the coast of Jalisco in southwestern Mexico. The storm is moving toward the northwest under the steering influence of a weak low- to mid-level ridge building over eastern Mexico. Moderate shear is currently offset by very warm sea-surface temperatures and sufficient amounts of mid-level moisture and upper-level divergence. Thus, Trudy could still eke out some additional intensification this evening.

Trudy is likely to reach its peak intensity late tonight and will start to weaken on Sunday as shear strengthens and atmospheric moisture rapidly decreases. As the storm’s convective structure starts to become increasingly shallow, the storm will turn west-northwestward as it becomes embedded within lower-level easterly wind flow. Trudy will pull away from mainland Mexico and move toward the Baja California peninsula early next week.

Hurricane conditions are ongoing along the coast of Jalisco and will continue through Sunday. Heavy rain will continue across portions of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco throughout the weekend. Trudy will continue to generate large swells which will create dangerous surf conditions along the coast of southwestern Mexico which will spread northward over the next few days.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

Dissipated Wati (01P — Southern Pacific) (North of the Cook Islands)

2 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Cyclone Wati (01P), which is active over the southern Pacific.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Wati has reached hurricane-equivalent strength. The storm, which is situated several hundred kilometers east of Samoa, is moving slowly south-southeastward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned to the east. Over the next few days, Wati will accelerate as it turns increasingly southeastward. Environmental conditions will remain favorable for the next 12 to 24 hours, allowing for some additional intensification. However, by early Sunday morning, the storm will begin to weaken as it moves over progressively cooler waters and encounters stronger vertical wind shear and drier air. This system may bring periods of heavy rain to portions of the Cook Islands early next week.

Information sources

Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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NOTE: Neither Tropical Tidbits nor CyclonicWx have zoomed-in regional views of the southern Pacific Ocean.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/onewhitelight • 4d ago

Seasonal Forecast | Earth Sciences New Zealand Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2026

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4 Upvotes
3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 6d ago

Image of the Day | NASA Science Hurricane Simon Lurks Off the Mexican Coast - NASA Science

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20 Upvotes
4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 7d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Simon Whips Southwestern Mexico - October 12, 2026

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7 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

Discussion moved to new post Trudy (21E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

7 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Trudy (21E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

A tropical depression which formed several hundred kilometers off the coast of southern Mexico continues to become better organized and estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis reveal that it is now producing tropical storm-force winds. The storm, which has been assigned the name Trudy by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is moving northwestward under the steering influence of a mid-level ridge which persists over the Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should allow Trudy to continue to steadily develop over the next couple of days.

The mid-level steering ridge is expected to weaken and retreat eastward over the next couple of days, leaving behind a very weak steering environment and causing Trudy to slow down. The storm will likely turn slightly northward as its movement becomes more heavily influenced by Hurricane Simon, which will still be active off the coast of western Mexico. A cold front may swoop down across Texas and Mexico later in the week and could pull Trudy closer to the coast toward the end of the week. There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding Trudy’s track during the latter half of the week.

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12 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7d ago

Dissipated 28W (Western Pacific) (South of Japan)

3 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Depression Twenty-eight (28W), which is active over the western Pacific.

A tropical depression remains active a few hundred kilometers southeast of Iōto in Japan’s Ogasawara Islands. The depression has not undergone any significant changes in strength or structure over the past several hours; its low-level center remains exposed and only a few isolated bursts of deep convection continue to flare up to the southwest. This system continues to move toward the west-northwest under the steering influence of a deep-layered subtropical ridge positioned to the northeast. Upper-level convergence associated with a trough positioned directly above the depression is suppressing any potential for outflow development, preventing the depression from developing in an otherwise highly favorable environment.

This system is likely to stop producing persistent thunderstorm activity and will degenerate into a remnant low as it passes well to the south of Iōto by the end of the week.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Though the JMA does classify this system as a tropical depression on its surface analysis and prognosis charts, it has not initiated issuing tropical cyclone warnings for it.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

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r/TropicalWeather • u/ClimateMessiah • 7d ago

Discussion My wishes for the meteorological community

3 Upvotes

This subreddit serves multiple purposes. It's like a newspaper for those interested in the academic aspects of tropical cyclones. It's an educational community communication hub for those who are potentially in harm's way.

The greatest potential harm to humans appears not be associated with peak wind speed or lowest central air pressure. The greatest threat seems to be related to the volume of water which be transferred into their land territory. Rainfall and surge are storm specific water invasions.

The Saffir-Simpson index is misleading to the public because it offers a metric which appears to represent hurricane strength as having reached a peak.

The community would benefit from some innovation and better metrics which appropriately and unequivocally inform the world that these storms are becoming more dangerous. Not only as a result of storm specific surge and rainfall, but also due to chronic rise in sea levels.

How does such innovation arise? It begins with people saying that they represent a market for that information. Is there anyone else who would like to be informed of the increasing volumes of water being transferred inland as a result of these storms?

10 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/ClimateMessiah • 8d ago

Discussion Trying to learn ..... why did Simon deviate so far outside the cone?

35 Upvotes

At the 3PM CST update on October 10th, the NHC update indicated that Simon would move laterally from 104.8W to 105.2W over the ensuing 48 hours. 

INIT  10/2100Z 17.6N 104.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 19.4N 105.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/1800Z 21.9N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

At the 3PM CST update on Oct 12th, Simon was actually located at 106.8W

INIT  12/2100Z 20.2N 106.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

Instead of a 0.4 degree shift in longitude, Simon moved 2.0 degrees.

The latitude miss was 1.7 degrees (21.9N forecast vs 20.2N actual)

These kinds of deviations from forecast are quite unusual. Something took place which the forecasters didn't anticipate.

What happened that forecasters didn't anticipate? What do we learn from this?

15 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/climateexplorer_app • 8d ago

Isaias at Three Airports: The Gusts a Daily Average Hides

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1 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 9d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Isaias - October 9, 2026

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5 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

D The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the tropical eastern Atlantic

46 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

  • This discussion was for a disturbance situated near Cabo Verde in the tropical eastern Atlantic.
  • This system has dissipated and no longer shows any potential for development.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

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Observational history is not currently available for this system.

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is not currently available for this system.

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

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