r/SelfDrivingCars • u/SpriteZeroY2k • 3h ago
News Tesla pushes unsupervised FSD to Q2 2027, and only inside Robotaxi zones
https://electrek.co/2026/10/21/tesla-unsupervised-fsd-q2-2027-robotaxi-fleet/52
u/aft3rthought 3h ago
Only inside robotaxi zones? It’s almost like some sort of… geofence!
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u/bobi2393 2h ago
“If you need a geofence area, you don’t have real self-driving!” Musk 2019
Maybe he can spin this as a geoborder rather than a geofence, since you can drive through the border as you transition to FSD Supervised.
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u/CDpov 3h ago
Anybody who thinks their private Tesla will become Level 5 at all is a fool.
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u/SubstantialSoil4454 2h ago
No one is expecting L5, L4 is expected in some areas that are pre mapped
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u/Kroosn 2h ago
Yeah don’t expect full self driving from your full self driving.
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u/GoSh4rks 1h ago
Level 5 includes blizzard, chains required on all wheels conditions. I don't think people are expecting that out of anyone in near-mid future.
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u/sachasayan 1h ago
SAE J3016 pretty explicitly carves out inclement weather situations like blizzard/ice conditions. It's in section 5.6.
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u/SubstantialSoil4454 2h ago
L4 is FSD, the same level Waymo uses
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u/Kroosn 2h ago
It’s not really “Full” if it’s only specific areas and weather conditions is it?
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u/unique_usemame 2h ago
Summoning a car from LA to NY was pretty much how Elon defined FSD in the first place. That requires being able to deal with most weathers although I guess it is ok to wait out the worst snowstorm.
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u/lee1026 2h ago
If there is a single uncooperative jurisdiction anywhere in the world, L5 won’t happen.
It is just how the SAE defined it.
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u/sachasayan 1h ago edited 1h ago
That's not true. There's even a specific carve out in SAE J3016 for market conditions. What you're saying is simply untrue.
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u/sirkilgoretrout 2h ago
Wait for L4-lite or L3-plus to show up as newly minted terms as a way for some companies to try to prolong the magic and stay conversationally relevant while still managing to underdeliver
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u/limes336 2h ago
People are definitely expecting that, that’s like the #1 argument I hear for Tesla as an AV brand.
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u/CDpov 2h ago
Nearly everybody in the Teslaverse is expecting L5.
That's still what Musk is selling in his investor statements. He says it will work everywhere "all at once" starting around next year, with no special maps, a generalized solution. That's L5. He's been saying "next year" and "no extra maps general solution" since 2019 at least.
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u/GoSh4rks 1h ago
He says it will work everywhere "all at once" starting around next year, with no special maps, a generalized solution. That's L5
L5 is defined to include "all conditions" - not just the items you list.
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u/CDpov 1h ago
He has never said FSD is limited to special conditions.
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u/GoSh4rks 1h ago
So you're saying that the Teslaverse is expecting FSD to work in whiteout and full chains required conditions (as is required for L5)? That seems thin to me.
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u/CDpov 1h ago
L5 doesn't include whiteouts. L5 is all about normal human driving on all public roads. L5 has nothing to do with black ice, major hurricanes, whiteout blizzards, locust plagues, alien invasions, etc. If an L5 system were in a blizzard, it should pull over to stay safe.
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u/iceynyo 1h ago
L4 should too.
In fact the only necessary difference between L4 and L5 would be the geofence and the ability for the car to call for remote support.
Within the geofence there would be no difference for a user.
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u/CDpov 47m ago
No, L4 is all about ODDs, which can include any kind of weather limitations along with geofence. That's why being L4 doesn't mean it has advanced capabilities. A company could declare their ADS L4 with an ODD that is limited to driving around the block only in perfect daylight weather, in a gated community that never has traffic. That would be a legitimate L4 ODD.
L5 only has weather limitations that are dangerous for reasonable operation, in which case it would have to achieve minimal risk.
L5 can also still have remote support for handling special circumstances like a riot or when the ADS or car breaks down.
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u/iceynyo 11m ago
L4 can have ODD limitations, but it isn't required to have them.
Functionally it would feel the same as L5 for someone in the car if it's able to operate safely for all situations and locations if support happens without the passenger hearing about it.
L5 is supposed to be the equivalent of a human driver. Calling a tow truck for a breakdown is not the same as relying on remote support for driving as needed by L4.
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u/RosieDear 3h ago
The last known "money put up" was on Polymarket and it involved simple Robotaxis in California.
The bet closed at over 100 to 1 against.
In other words, this is what sane people outside the bubble are willing to put money on. That it will not happen in a reasonable timeline.
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u/Whammmmy14 3h ago
Completely agree. Once it came down to put up or shut up it clarified things real quick. I hope another bet opens on Polymarket for when unsupervised FSD actually rolls out.
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u/Confident-Sector2660 2h ago
Ashok has generally not lied about autonomy or deadlines.
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u/RosieDear 1h ago
Interesting - when anyone uses a name like that I automatically dismiss any and all claims.
To suggest that folks with 10's or 100's of billions (or even a measly 100,000 dollars) based on what they say - NOT WHAT THEY DO - are giving me accurate information would be ridiculous.
"asscock" will always say exactly what his superiors tell him to say or he will be shown the door that very afternoon.
Was he around when the "we are a couple quarters away from Level 5" projections were made in 2021? Let me tell you this. No engineer or project manager is that stupid. That is, there could not possibly be anyone at Tesla who believed that their cars would be Level 5 within a year (let alone ever) in 2021. If there were, they are the dumbest engineers on Planet earth.
Which means only one of two things.
They are either clueless and couldn't engineer a go-kart
or
They were told to go alone with a lie due to money.You can decide which, but there are not other options. None. It's like "the cookie jar is empty and only you and your 8 year old son live at home". Did you eat them? Or he?
There is no 3rd option.
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u/Confident-Sector2660 54m ago edited 50m ago
Ashok has been very good about his timelines lately
Elon was the one that claimed mid next year they will launch in california. Ashok generally is not far off so we will see when he says something
Regulation is not a problem and clearly tesla safety is more than good enough
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u/JasonQG 2h ago edited 2h ago
I’m actually excited about this answer, because it’s the first time they’ve given a realistic answer, and the first time that Ashok answered, which means it’s actually probably close to what will happen. All previous answers have been Musk lies that translated to “not happening in any way any time soon.” This is progress
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u/ejy92 2h ago edited 1h ago
Glad to see at least one person having a positive reaction to this. I share the exact same sentiment. Seems very reasonable to begin offering unsupervised FSD for customers within Robotaxi zones only.
Otherwise it makes zero sense that Tesla would somehow offer unrestricted uFSD to customers everywhere while their own Robotaxi fleet operate in geofenced areas only lol. Seems like a very natural progression of things and makes the timeline much more realistic and feasible.
Unfortunately I live in the Bay Area so hopefully Tesla will do their thing out here ASAP. Either way I’m incredibly excited for what’s to come.
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u/JasonQG 1h ago
I also live in the Bay Area. Worse, I live in the North Bay, so we don’t even have the supervised not-actually-a-robotaxi service
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u/RosieDear 47m ago
last bet on poly was over 100 to 1 against Tesla even having robotaxis in Cali.
The truth is - that they do not work. Fact. The reason why Tesla has not even applied is they would not work or get approval. Texas is the wild west.
I think you will have cars that work in the Bay Area. But they won't be Teslas.
This new PR is basically admission that the cameras only will never work (remember, the promise was L5 everywhere).There is no down side to Tesla for not telling the truth. Never has been. Why would it matter now? The good news is that likely Nvidia stuff and WayMo (expansion, hopefully) will allow Bay Area to be served.
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u/Zemerick13 5m ago
Tesla still hasn't even applied or submitted data towards the next testing permit. Don't expect them operating in Cali any time soon.
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u/CloseToMyActualName 1h ago
Agreed, and it demonstrates that Tesla believes customer vehicles do have the hardware for L4. I don't know what upgrades their Robotaxi fleet has.
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u/RosieDear 44m ago
It's doesn't show they believe anything except that they can delay admitting failure forever.
The last odds on poly against Tesla having approval in Cali were over 100 to 1.
If you want to believe the "1" side of that bet, more power to you.
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u/Large_Complaint1264 2h ago
I just can’t imagine letting people play in my face like that repeatedly. How do y’all keep falling for the same lie?
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u/JasonQG 2h ago
Do you have reading comprehension problems? Did I not just point out all previous answers were lies?
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u/RosieDear 46m ago
But so is this. The usual reaction to someone lying to your face for many many years is "I don't believe a single word they say - from before, now or in the future".
It's not "oh, this one sounds like it might be accurate".
Why should they be accurate? They have zero reason to be. None.
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u/Unknowingly-Joined 3h ago
Well, that’s super awkward.
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u/beren12 2h ago
Which? This part?
https://reddit.com/link/19rgftnmbbx4w/video/s7iqbz8dlwwh1/player
Or the part that’s perpetually “next year”
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u/Relative_Average758 2h ago
In which quarter does he program these to run over democratic politicians?
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u/Acceptable-Pie-4548 1h ago
Crazy people can't see what an insane accomplishment this would be if Tesla actually delivers it.
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u/doomer_bloomer24 1h ago
Why was Cruise able to run a Robotaxi service in freaking San Francisco in 2022 and Tesla yet doesn’t even have cars in SF.
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u/cddelgado 38m ago
FSD inside of robotaxi zones makes perfect sense. Those are the only areas they've tested to match the quality and safety to run business.
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u/SteveFCA 2h ago
it will never be level 5 with camera only period. Anyone that thinks otherwise is a fool
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u/RipWhenDamageTaken 3h ago edited 3h ago
It’s been well over 10 years. Anyone still believing in unsupervised FSD in consumer cars should not be respected as an intelligent being.
Come on, do some basic math on what it means when Tesla starts taking legal responsibility for car accidents. The cost will far outweigh the revenue. Can they even afford to increase the price of FSD?
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u/DungeonJailer 3h ago
Those goalposts heavy? I’m sure you were saying that unsupervised FSD could never work period this time last year, and probably also saying starship would never make it to orbit.
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u/_Smashbrother_ 34m ago
Meh, current FSD is enough to do like 95% of driving. I use it everyday and it's pretty much good enough.
Sure, it would be cool to straight up sleep in my car, but having it do 95% of the driving is good enough for most people.
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u/Emergency-Piece9995 32m ago
... it's called insurance / actuarial science. It is a pretty old industry though, you may have never heard of it.
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u/Desultory_Chairlift 32m ago
Legal responsibilities for car accidents, you mean like insurance companies?
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u/bittabet 2h ago
Well, I think I would find this more exciting if the Robotaxi geofence for my city wasn't solely the industrial and rural area near the airport that's away from literally anything I'd ever go to (and which excludes the airport itself). So...I suppose it is possible that it could run fully unsupervised there safely. It's just not particularly useful unless they hugely improve the geofenced areas.
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u/GoSh4rks 1h ago
For consumer vehicles, isn't this the first date that has been mentioned in years?
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u/HighHokie 22m ago
I’d have assumed elektrek would be celebrating the news considering how unsafe they believe it to be, but they still seem upset.
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u/artardatron 3h ago
important to note they're talking about owned vehicles, not robotaxi. Which is already scaling within geofences.
Most don't know the difference between FSD and robotaxi, understandably
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u/Dry-Shallot-6904 2h ago
It wasn’t Elon who said this tho. The AI lead deadline probally accurate tbh
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u/SentOverByRedRover 2h ago
the article doesn't quote or source what ashok actually said. can anyone provide the quote? consumer vehicles being added to the robotaxi network doesn't necessarily mean it will be limited to geofences as electrek interprets.
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u/klassredux 3h ago
The most exciting thing to ever happen is always happening tomorrow at TSLA.