Real News and Good News

[u/RecognitionLow3846]

/r/REBubble/comments/1xbprjt/real_news_and_good_news/

Pending sales fell 7.3% in September and I'm honestly not panicking

NAR put out the September pending home sales numbers yesterday. Contracts were down 7.3% from August and 11.3% from last year, and every region dropped. Out West it was worse, down 9.2% for the month and 15% from a year ago.

I get why that headline freaks people out. But I read the whole release and a few things stood out to me.

Prices are holding. Lawrence Yun (NAR's chief economist) said there just aren't many distressed properties out there, so prices are staying steady. This is not 2008.

He also said rates "could be topping out" and that buyers and sellers are "holding back until mortgage rates move favorably." To me that says people are waiting, not walking away. That demand doesn't disappear, it builds up.

And some markets barely moved. Nashville was only down 2%, Hartford 2.1%, San Francisco 3.5%.

If you're buying, this is when buyers get leverage. Less competition means you can ask for repairs, credits, or have the seller pay to buy your rate down. Get fully underwritten now so you can move quick if rates dip. If you love the house and the payment works today, buy it. Just don't count on a refi. It's an option, not a promise.

If you're selling, price it right from day one. There are fewer buyers, they're picky, and overpriced homes just sit. I'd rather see a seller offer to buy down the buyer's rate than cut the price. It usually does more for their monthly payment. And get the place ready. Repairs done, good photos, honest disclosures.

If you're an agent (and I coach a lot of you), this is a relationship market. Call your past clients and your sphere with real local numbers, not a sales pitch. Know your pending sales, days on market and price per square foot cold. People are scared of headlines, so be the calm one with the facts. And build your referral partners now: attorneys, financial advisors, lenders. The agents who keep prospecting through a slow fall are the ones who own the spring.

Markets go up and down. The people who stay educated and keep showing up do fine either way.

What are you all seeing where you are? Slowing down or holding steady?

Numbers are from NAR's Pending Home Sales report, Oct 20.

[u/EnduroAmateur]

“I’d rather see a seller buy down the buyer’s rate than cut the price.”

Of course you would. A rate buydown allows sellers to preserve a higher recorded sale price instead of letting prices adjust to what buyers can actually afford. Builders use this same strategy to protect their comps and avoid lowering prices on the rest of their inventory.

A $400,000 house sold with $20,000 in seller concessions isn’t economically equivalent to a $400,000 house sold without concessions. Yet both can show up as $400,000 sales, creating a misleading picture of what buyers are actually willing to pay.

This helps prop up headline home values rather than allowing genuine price discovery. And unlike a permanent price reduction, a temporary rate buydown does nothing to reduce the buyer’s principal balance.

Why are we so determined to protect sellers’ asking prices instead of allowing the housing market to correct naturally?