NASA has announced how it wants to proceed with a commercial space station to replace the ISS, but will a future AI stock market crash scupper those plans?

[u/lughnasadh]

NASA's plans are to narrow down 4 contenders to just 2 in April 2027, and at a later date commit to just one. The 4 contenders are Axiom Space, Blue Origin, Starlab Space, and Vast. Starlab and Axiom are focusing on single modules they want to test on the current ISS. Vast and Blue Origin plan for standalone stations, with Blue Origin planning for a much bigger station than Vast.

The route to space commercialization was always going to be difficult. If investors are going to commit to the hundreds of billions involved, where does the revenue come from? We all know it will happen one day; the prospect of asteroid mining demonstrates that, but how to bridge the gap before it becomes a reality?

A more immediate barrier? The AI boom means the stock market is at 1929 levels of over-valuation; we all know it's going to crash. So where does that leave these 4 companies? Without the draw of something like asteroid mining, I struggle to see how a commercial space station, with minimal government support, becomes a reality in the near future.

The commercial space station competition finally begins

[u/sciolisticism]

Seems like this is going to be an excuse to funnel billions of dollars to these private companies, blow up a gigantic amount of money to make little or no progress, then declare victory.

The privatization of NASA is a real shame. Especially now that we know that their most major private partner is run by a one-man geopolitical adversary.

[u/lughnasadh → u/sciolisticism]

The privatization of NASA is a real shame

Space activities are going to be commercially self-supporting one day, so its good to help that process along.

But yes, putting your space efforts in the hands of a grifter who then makes it all about his Las Vegas style gamble to be the richest person ever, is inevitably going to end in disaster. For NASA's sake, it's sad to watch the car wreck happening in slow-motion.

The TV Series 'For All Mankind' shows what could have been instead....

[u/sciolisticism → u/lughnasadh]

Space activities are going to be commercially self-supporting one day, so its good to help that process along.

Will they? I know we've wanted commercial mining on the theory that there are giant chunks of precious metals in space, but the economics of moving those big asteroids doesn't make it likely (within the timespan before we nuke ourselves or get Kessler-syndromed out of the sky).

I'm not even sure it would be good to have space get commercialized.

But yeah, it hurts to see the direction we've taken when it would have been so comparatively cheap to have governments cooperate to accomplish more.

[u/No_big_whoop]

Scupper: thwart or destroy, especially something belonging or pertaining to another

TIL

[u/lughnasadh → u/No_big_whoop]

Scupper

Its also a word used when people destroy their own vessels intentionally.

For example, in 1919 the German Navy scuppered their entire fleet at Scapa Flow rather than let the British get their hands on it, though the British Navy prevented a third of them from being sunk.