r/Bitcoin • u/makingcryptoeasy • 16h ago
From “Bitcoin is a fraud” to forecasting 10% annual returns. Character development.
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u/WorkerPlayful4192 15h ago
"If you can't beat it, join it".
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u/Brave_Ad_9591 15h ago
Tale as old as time, Wall Street trashes the thing until they've bought enough of it
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u/slavikthedancer 15h ago
If they were wrong the first time, why do you think they are right the second?
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u/BitcoinBaller420 13h ago
Because I've studied it myself and came to my own conclusions from first principles?
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u/Squeiner 13h ago
For the same reason I thought they were wrong the first time. Cause I already thought btc would outperform everything else. I thought that the whole time, that's why this is such a satisfying image.
The biggest bank in the world used to say I was a crazy fool. Now they say im right.
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u/Cold_Respond_7656 10h ago
So confirmation bias then?
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u/Squeiner 9h ago
Interesting. It would be if I were using their current stance as evidence that I'm right.
But i dont need JP Morgan to agree with me, and I don't use the banks position as an argument in favor of my own.
However, feeling satisfied that a doubter like JP Morgan changed it's mind and has come around to the same position I already had seems a normal human feeling. Im just basking in thay feeling. Feels nice. You'll come around too one day if you're not already there.
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u/Cold_Respond_7656 8h ago
Until next week when they change their mind and then you say they don’t know what they’re talking about.
Picking one opinion of theirs you agree with and dismissing those you don’t is literally confirmation bias
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u/Squeiner 2h ago
Hahaha no man, that's just... having an opinion lol.
Im not "picking" an opinion i like and dismissing the one I dont haha this is such a weird argument youre making.
I already have an opinion. If they have a different opinion, then I disagree with them, like in 2017. If they have the same opinion, then I agree with them, like in 2026. If they once again change their opinion to one that is different from my opinion, then again, by definition, I will disagree with them, because I already have this opinion.
Confirmation bias is when you ignore evidence for or against something that doesn't support your preexisting hypothesis, and only pay attention to the evidence that does support it.
Nothing like that is going on here. Nobody has presented any evidence about anything for me to ignore or pay attention to.
Opinions were stated, and I either agree or disagree with them.
If thats were confirmation bias (it isn't) then you're equally guilty of it in the opposite direction. You picked their 2017 opinion as the one you like, and dismissed their 2026 opinion which you don't like.
Luckily for you, this is not a case of confirmation bias, so you're safe.
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u/Dramatic-Tackle-792 11h ago
Because now they're buying along with other institutions and advising high net worth clients to allocate to Bitcoin along with the other financial institutions who are doing the same thing. They've invested billions in laying the rails to integrate Bitcoin into the global financial system and all they have to do now is invest millions to ensure trillions in fees over the next decades from fees for custody and derivative products. People said the Earth was flat, then they said it was round. Being wrong and ignorant ten years ago is not the same as making a similar mistake with more information now.
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u/No_Resolution8762 9h ago
I don't think they're right. I think they're highly underestimating bitcoin returns in the next 10 years. I just think their take is less bad than their previous take.
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u/BannanaPepperPizza 14h ago
Because it reinforces my beliefs and doesn't challenge my view of reality.
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u/Big-Cheetah5159 10h ago
That’s literally how being wrong works. He just made a correction to his previous statement and changed his stance. If you were to use your logic during high school when you got a questions wrong, you wouldn’t have graduated.
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u/Tobias_CBC 8h ago
A forecast becoming more bullish isn’t evidence that it’s now correct. I’d treat the 10% figure as one scenario and check the assumptions behind it—time horizon, adoption, fees and downside—then compare those with a neutral benchmark before letting it influence a plan.
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u/buebaurbling 14h ago
i don't think it matters whether they're right this time, the main thing is that they've already changed their minds
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u/Sus198 15h ago
That is why buy/hold/sell signals by 'respected' financial institutions are nothing more than bull fuckin' shit that should be treated as bull fuckin' shit.
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u/Tobias_CBC 8h ago
That skepticism is reasonable when the institution also sells products around the asset. A practical filter is to ignore the label, read the assumptions and time horizon, and ask what evidence would prove the call wrong before using it in any decision.
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u/LucaRossi0 13h ago
It only took Wall Street 9 years, a spot ETF, and massive inflation to finally figure out what satoshi wrote in 9 pages.
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u/OssoBlanco86 13h ago
My fear is they will find a way to outlaw self custody. That is what I like best about crypto versus stocks or ETFs…..hopefully my fears are unfounded.
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u/Tobias_CBC 8h ago
It helps to separate protocol access from legal pressure on exchanges, banks, or wallet providers. Instead of treating every headline as a ban, track the exact proposal, jurisdiction, and whether it restricts possession, transactions, or regulated intermediaries; which country are you most concerned about?
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u/OssoBlanco86 6h ago
Mainly the US, but I travel at times. Internationally I have been on every continent for work or vacation. Hopefully my fears are full of it!
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u/Darkpriest667 13h ago
I did the calculations for us.. It would be extremely difficult for them to do that -- mainly because 66% of BTC is held by individuals in their own wallets
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u/Tall-Ad1293 13h ago
2017: 'Bitcoin is a fraud!' (so our clients can buy the dip cheap) 2026: 'Bitcoin will outperform everything!' (so our clients can sell their bags to you)
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u/According_Invite_715 13h ago
You think JM Morgans advisors were giving that advice in 2017? "You should really go on bitstamp and invest your money there instead of handing it to us"
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u/Financial_Ad_2849 12h ago
This is actually very much how you should interpret news these days. Do the opposite of what they are insinuating. Because if they really believed BTC would do so well why give that crucial info away for free?
Disclaimer: I am not criticising BTC I just feel people should be careful with news like this
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u/Expensive_Luck4194 12h ago
funny how the tone flips once the money is in. self custody is still the part that matters long term
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u/Tobias_CBC 8h ago
Those are two separate questions: a bank can become bullish because client demand and regulated products make Bitcoin commercially useful, while self-custody concerns who ultimately controls the asset. I’d treat the forecast as a scenario, not validation, and ask which assumptions would break it.
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u/Nordisksnow 12h ago
Guess I can buy bitcoin cheaper in the near future, if I can read JP Morgan correctly.
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u/quicksilverth0r 11h ago
There is no one at that organization I respect. Their opinions are irrelevant to me.
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u/Veganarchyst 9h ago
Any true bitcoiner knew THEY were the fraud - that's why you Bitcoin - not bank
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u/GrouchySheepherder38 9h ago
It's strange when I look at how Bitcoin performed from 2009 until 2019 (ten years time) and in 3 years will be another ten years the second decade but it seems the gains have decreased a lot if you compare. I bought 4 years ago and the price nearly stays the same lol. Scary what the future holds for it
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u/Ok-Wolverine-7122 7h ago
They didn't want you to buy in 2017 , now that they have bought they want others to buy .
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u/what_are_pain 5h ago
He is the guy said WFH is a fraud and the bank was still making record profits despite most of the staff was working remotely.
What do u expect?
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u/DistinctYolo 13h ago
One is from JP Morgan boss, another is from JP Morgan, I personally think boss would be more accurate
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u/Evander-18 12h ago
How can this be tho
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u/norfbayboy 12h ago
He's saying the next ten years are going to be terrible for stocks and bonds as AI bubble destroys the stock market and hyperinflation renders cash and fiat bonds worthless.
Gold i don't know about.
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u/Tobias_CBC 8h ago
A change in stance can reflect changed incentives more than a sudden discovery: spot ETFs, client demand and a clearer compliance route made Bitcoin easier for a bank to package. I’d still judge the new forecast by its assumptions and time horizon, not by the institution’s name.
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u/bobbyv137 15h ago
So a company that now finally offers Bitcoin products and services has come out to say Bitcoin is a good investment.
Incredible stuff.