r/AskReddit • u/VGAddict • 2h ago

With early voting starting in Texas, who do you have winning the Texas Senate race?

1 Upvotes

51% Upvoted

67 comments sorted by

51

u/Hrekires 2h ago

I'd love to be wrong, but I assume Paxton will win regardless of what all the polls are saying because Texas

32

u/GrimeyScorpioDuffman 2h ago

Every big election I hear people say this time will be different, but the fact remains that so many Texans will vote for a candidate just because he has an R next to his name despite how terrible a human being that person is

9

u/NubEnt 2h ago

Srsly, if someone as openly corrupt as Paxton wins, I don’t want to hear another “Texas is turning purple!” claim for the rest of my life.

4

u/GrimeyScorpioDuffman 2h ago

I don’t even live in Texas anymore but I have friends there who keep deluding themselves that this is their time to win a statewide election. I’ll believe it when I see it

3

u/Ghost17088 2h ago

I vote Democrat and I’ve lived in Texas for 3 years. If Cancun Cruz can keep getting reelected, this state will never turn any color than the brightest red. 

2

u/Brilliant-Advisor958 1h ago

He might win, but it probably would be damn close. Even the 2018 senate election with Beto got the closest with 48.33% since 1978.

6

u/FreeMasonKnight 2h ago

That’s not the actual issue, there are more democrats than republicans in Texas, but the state is Gerrymandered to hell which allows republicans to rig the results against the will of the actual people.

17

u/nyjets239 2h ago

Gerrymandering has no effect on a statewide election.

3

u/jhhertel 2h ago edited 2h ago

scratch what i said. The voting is by county.

you can still mess with voting based on red counties and blue counties, but that isnt gerry mandering in the way we are talking about it.

3

u/rihimvp 2h ago

Voting in Texas is by county, not district. So no impact from gerrymandering

1

u/nyjets239 1h ago

Even if it was by district, it's a statewide election. You can't gerrymander a statewide election. The only effect gerrymandering could have is by making people in those gerrymandered counties/districts not show up because they know their local candidate has no shot of winning. But I would argue it could also have the same effect on people who are in the supermajority party.

Either way, gerrymandering has little to no effect on a statewide election.

1

u/jhhertel 1h ago

as i said in an earlier post, you absolutely can affect turnout in the counties by making it harder or easier to vote. This happened in georgia. Remember they actually added penalties where you couldnt even give a bottle of water to people waiting hours and hours in line? that didnt happen in a rural county, that was in atlanta if i recall correctly.

There was a moment where they were floating having a fixed number of drop boxes in each county in texas. So a rural county with 10000 people in it would get the same number of voting spots as harris county with 2 milllion people. Guess which counties are red and blue? That failed, but there are all kinds of levers for them to pull to do things of this nature.

1

u/nyjets239 1h ago

I'm not arguing with you about whatever you're saying. All I'm saying is it's not gerrymandering. That was the premise of my original comment. Whatever you are saying here is not gerrymandering.

1

u/jhhertel 2h ago

oh yea, thats true. There is still room for malfeasance, but its not the districts, its just the counties.

The unfortunate thing is that counties sort based on rural/urban pretty terribly.

0

u/nyjets239 1h ago

Yes, that's not gerrymandering. That's a form of voter suppression.

1

u/jhhertel 1h ago

right, but it explains why just being a state wide race doesnt insulate you from them putting a finger on the scales. just having more democrats is not on its own enough if you dont control the apparatus of the state.

11

u/GrimeyScorpioDuffman 2h ago

But it’s a statewide election for Senate. No districts

1

u/Stillwater215 2h ago

It has more registered democrats than registered republicans. But the non-party registered voters tend to heavily lean Republican.

•

u/FlamingCulpepper 41m ago

Time for us to run as an R then flip to D when elected. The Republicunts are doing it to us.

1

u/rohttn13 1h ago

but other people will do the same if they see a D next to someone's name. it cuts both ways

1

u/HorseWorking 2h ago

The worse the better

1

u/SpaceCargo22 2h ago

I don’t know will win, polls haven’t meant much in years, but if Paxton wins, it wouldn’t surprise me.

1

u/MyCatLaughsAtMe 2h ago

Agreed. Texas has been "turning blue" for 30 years now. Would love it to be true but I have no good reason to cling to that hope.

1

u/RoseVideo99 1h ago

I know. It’s still Texas.

29

u/furryfrog02 2h ago

Whoever gets the most votes.

24

u/Send_Pupper_Pics_Pls 2h ago

Bold of you to assume that’s the deciding factor nowadays

3

u/furryfrog02 2h ago

Sadly it is not a 100% fool proof plan, given the fact that they will do anything to win. Overwhelming numbers at the polls will make it harder to push their narrative though.

1

u/FattySnacks 2h ago

Hopefully

16

u/EffectiveActive6837 2h ago

The state will never be blue but will blame it on blue every election lmao

11

u/Tay_Tay86 2h ago

Talarico

4

u/indigoC99 2h ago edited 1h ago

It's wayyy too early to tell but I think Talarico gonna win but I could be wrong, I could be right. Who knows?

I want to Gina Hinjosa to win but I would be shocked if she actually does

3

u/BeTooLive 2h ago

I sure hope Talarico wins. But probably won't stop the scammers from texting me for donations and support. Even though I don't even live in Texas.

3

u/ArlapOfDion 1h ago

Not just Texas, I got one from Washington state a couple of days ago. Most of the rhetoric was the same as Texas.

13

u/apeocalypyic 2h ago

Paxton. Texas is a lost cause.

6

u/LessRequirement3065 2h ago

The one with the most votes usually wins unless it's the President.

3

u/realdondaud 2h ago

Texas is going purple imo

2

u/yougoboy64 2h ago

With the mental decline our country is experiencing....Paxton..!

2

u/Double-Bank-6621 2h ago

Republican

4

u/woolash 2h ago

The betting sites have Talarico at 66% chance of winning fwiw.

1

u/KenN2k01 2h ago

I am going to vote for Talarico, but Texans will blindly vote for Republicans. My entire family isn’t into politics, but they’re wired to vote Republican instead of voting for what would actually be benefitting them.

2

u/Alternative-City5799 2h ago

Talarico but by a thin margin

0

u/Scared-Ideal-1483 2h ago

Talarico/AOC 28

1

u/britishmetric144 2h ago

I think it’s Paxton. He’s going to try to do everything he can to ‘rig’ the election. And at the end of the day, Texas is still Texas.

1

u/GoWithTheFlow___ 1h ago

My money’s on Paxton

1

u/Desperate-Olive-9282 1h ago

Generally Democratic votes comes earlier than Republicans then around election day, you will see more rural Republican areas voting on election day. I believe Paxton will have a narrow victory in Texas not because he is a good candidate but because he is in a state that voted for Republicans for the last 30 years. This is my analysis of the Texas Senate Race who considers myself as an outsider being neither Democratic or Republican.

•

u/ReferenceMediocre369 56m ago

In that case, there isn't even a "least of two evils". There is an evil person on one hand, an an evil philosophy on the other. Many are not going to vote, or are going to work hard at cancelling their neighbors' yard signs.

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u/HighlyOffensive10 38m ago

I hope Talarico wins but it's fucking texas so....

1

u/Evenspace- 2h ago

I’m assuming Paxton because even though he’s an awful candidate. The GOP knows that demonizing Talarico and lying about him will sway the pea brained voters.

Paxton could literally steal millions in plain sight and Talarico would still lose because Texas can’t vote blue.

1

u/Ambitious-Pirate-505 2h ago

Paxton will win because they fixed the election.

Thats why he didnt debate and why he's not worried.

1

u/JoeNoble1973 2h ago

After the GOP machines flip the votes it’ll be Paxton by juuust more than the recount margin. As always w the GOP.

1

u/Euphoric_Anxiety_162 2h ago

The only way Paxton has a chance will be because the truth about Talarico's support is being censored. If you search, you'll see lies - things made up to discourage voters from Talarico, all false & disproven. So looks like perhaps elon can buy censorship as well as Paxton ads.

0

u/maineblackbear 2h ago

Texas gonna Texas.  GOP will win Maine Texas Michigan.  Democrats fall in love.  Republicans fall in line.

Ds will win the House but it’ll be stupid close. 219-216.

0

u/jhhertel 2h ago

Polymarket has Talarico at nearly 70% right now.

Does that mean anything given how bad polling has been the last few cycles? maybe.

One thing is for sure, if Talarico cant win in this environment going up against Paxton, then truly there was no way for a democrat to win.

I have hope. I think Talarico can finally get it done. Paxton is just about the worst candidate i have seen run for a texas national house or senate seat in a generation, and that is saying something. I like Talarico, he is a little churchy for me, but maybe that will help.

0

u/Zoraji 2h ago

You can't trust the early voting total because more Democrats tend to vote early than Republicans. The big Republican turnout is on election day.
I am hoping for Talarico but it is TX so I have my doubts.

1

u/Genghiskhen 1h ago

Here is information on voting early and avoiding any potential dirty tricks on election day: https://www.votetexas.gov/voting/where.html

1

u/RoseVideo99 1h ago

I know. I’m feeling this same pain you are.

-14

u/Suspicious_Yaks 2h ago

I hope Paxton but my life continues either way.

5

u/marx2k 2h ago

What do you like about Paxton

3

u/Midwestmind86 2h ago

Can I ask why you think he’s better than Talerico?

1

u/DrCalamity 2h ago

As a representative of the all important "loves a guy who intervened to make sure a child rapist didn't spend any time in jail" demographic, which of Ken Paxton's "no seriously, he made sure a personal friend of his who who was guilty of repeatedly raping children didn't ever have to serve a sentence" platform most appeals to you? Is it the naked corruption, the graft, or the advocacy for child rapists named Adam Hoffman?