Trump: Just 36 percent of likely voters said that they approved of Mr. Trump’s performance, while 59 percent said that they disapproved.

Trump’s approval rating hit a new low 36% just a few weeks before the midterm elections, driven down by broad disapproval of his handling of the economy, the war in Iran and high gas prices, according to a new national poll from The New York Times and Siena University.

Just 36 percent of likely voters said that they approved of Mr. Trump’s performance, while 59 percent said that they disapproved. That is his lowest approval rating recorded in any Times/Siena poll. More than two-thirds of independent voters said that they disapproved of the way he has handled his job as president.

Likely voters said that they preferred Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 percentage points in their congressional districts in the final Times/Siena national poll before the midterm elections, a slight improvement for Democrats since last month. The metric is widely seen as a strong indicator of political momentum.

The national political environment is bleak for Republicans. Americans broadly disapprove of economic conditions under the Trump administration, with three-quarters rating the economy as fair or poor. A majority of voters blame Mr. Trump for the decline: 69 percent disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, 65 percent disapprove of his handling of the war in Iran and nearly three-quarters disapprove of his handling of gas prices, which are above $4 a gallon.

Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT

But Democrats still face serious challenges, particularly as they seek to win control of the Senate. To do so they are trying to flip seats in Republican-leaning states including Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, which Mr. Trump won by double digits in 2024. Other polls show that Democrats and Republicans are locked in tight races in several key Senate contests.

[Follow all of the latest polls heading into November’s elections.]

Still, the deep economic frustration has even broken into the coalition that elected Mr. Trump to his second term. Over the past year, Democrats have improved their standing among men, young voters and Hispanic voters — winning back some voters in those groups who helped propel Mr. Trump to victory two years ago.

Paul Gettings, a Republican who lost his job running a logistics company in June, said that he supported Mr. Trump in 2024 but plans to back Democrats this year. He cited frustration with high gas prices, the war in Iran and what he sees as harsh immigration enforcement in Simi Valley, Calif., where he lives.

“I’m very disillusioned with the Republican Party and how they can continue to support Trump,” said Mr. Gettings, 62, who is unemployed. “He’s turned into a politician just like the rest of them and it’s a lot of empty promises.”

Among all registered voters, including those who are less likely to vote, Mr. Trump’s approval rating was even worse, with 34 percent approving of his job performance. Mr. Trump built his 2016 and 2024 wins partly on the strength of his support among white voters without a college degree, but the poll found that group is about evenly split in its approval of his job, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.

[See all of the latest polls measuring President Trump’s approval rating.]

As views of Republicans have declined, public perceptions of Democrats have grown increasingly positive over the last two years on an array of measures.

The New York Times/Siena Poll

Oct. 12-19

Do you think the following attributes describe the Democratic Party more or the Republican Party more?

Understands the problems facing people like me

2024

2026

44%

39

49%

53

Dem.

Rep.

Is the party of the working class

2024

2026

45

40

48

53

Dem.

Rep.

Can fix the problems facing people like me

2024

2026

45

40

46

51

Dem.

Rep.

Keeps its promises

2024

2026

44

38

40

46

Dem.

Rep.

Trump Approval Hits New Low Two Weeks Before Midterms, Poll Finds - The New York Times

Based on a New York Times/Siena poll of 3,494 likely voters nationwide conducted Oct. 12 to 19. Does not include those who did not respond or who said they didn’t know.Jillian Vordick/The New York Times

A majority of likely voters now see the Democratic Party as the party of the working class — a shift from 2022, when voters gave the Republican Party the edge. Voters also see Democrats as more likely to keep their promises than Republicans, a striking reversal from two years ago, when Republicans held an advantage on that question.

And majorities across nearly every demographic group now view Democrats as more understanding and able to fix the problems of average Americans.

Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT

“The Republican Party is, if anything, causing more problems for people like me: being Latino, feeling the weight of that kind of prejudice that I think the Republican Party tends to kind of portray," said Vince Cordero, 25, an independent in Oak Lawn, Ill., who said he plans on voting for Democrats this year. “I also think the Democratic Party deserves an opportunity to see if they’re really up to snuff.”

What questions were asked? Who answers polls?The New York Times/Siena Poll has earned a reputation for accuracy and transparency. Our pollsters and editors are committed to explaining our methods and answering common questions. Read our Q. and A. and explore the full results of the polls:

You Ask, We Answer: How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted

Cross-Tabs: October 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate

By a 15-point margin, more voters trust the Democratic Party over the Republican Party to tackle the cost of living, the single most important issue to voters. The party holds an 8-point advantage on the economy, an area that has historically been a strength for Mr. Trump. Democrats have also grown their lead since September on who voters trust to handle foreign wars and artificial intelligence.

The New York Times/Siena Poll

Oct. 12-19

Regardless of how you might vote, please tell me which party you trust to do a better job handling each of the following:

Health care

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLICAN

Margin

57%

37%

D+20

The cost of living

55

40

D+15

Gas prices

53

39

D+14

Foreign wars

51

41

D+10

The economy

51

43

D+8

Immigration

50

46

D+4

Corruption

50

11

39

D+11

Artificial intelligence

48

15

37

Don’t know

D+11

Based on a New York Times/Siena poll of 3,494 likely voters nationwide conducted Oct. 12 to 19.Jillian Vordick/The New York Times

But even amid his declining numbers, Mr. Trump has held on to strong support from his base. The vast majority of Republicans, 82 percent, still approve of his job performance and his signature policies, including the Iran war and tariffs.

“People are upset, ‘Oh, Trump put these tariffs on people and now our food costs go up,’” said Sheila Murdock, a retired nurse from Shelley, Idaho, who has already voted absentee for Republicans this year. “Well, yes, but if you look at the bigger picture and what it eventually does, it makes things better.”

Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT

The poll also found immigration re-emerging as a defining concern for voters. Ten percent of voters now say it is their top issue this fall, up from 6 percent in September. Among Republicans, almost 20 percent now say it is their top priority — nearly double the percentage who said the same last month.

While Democrats still hold an edge over Republicans in who voters trust to handle immigration — which had long been a Republican strength — that advantage has shrunk since September. Now, 46 percent of voters say they trust Republicans on immigration, 50 percent say the same of Democrats.

Still, the survey indicates that even as Democratic candidates gain support, there is lingering discontent with their party. Just 28 percent of voters said they are satisfied with the Democratic Party, eight points lower than the share who express satisfaction with the Republican Party.

Much of the unhappiness stems from Democratic voters themselves. Forty-three percent of Democrats said they are unsatisfied with their party, compared to just 16 percent of Republicans who said the same about the G.O.P.

Sophia June contributed reporting.

Here are the key things to know about this New York Times/Siena poll:

Interviewers spoke with 3,494 voters from Oct. 12 to 19, 2026.

The polls were conducted by telephone using live interviewers. Overall, nearly 99 percent of respondents were contacted on their cellphones.

Voters were selected for each survey from a list of voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For these polls, interviewers placed more than 412,000 calls to more than 185,000 voters.

To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the results and methodology page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.9 percentage points among the likely electorate and registered voters. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error.

You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Corrected on Oct. 21, 2026: An earlier version of a homepage image with this article misstated the support for Democratic candidates in the 2026 general election for Congress. As the article correctly stated, it is 52 percent, not 51 percent.

We acknowledge mistakes in our reporting with corrections. If you spot an error, please let us know at corrections@nytimes.com.Learn more.

Lisa Lerer is a national political reporter for The Times, based in New York. She has covered American politics for nearly two decades.

Ruth Igielnik is a Times polling editor who conducts polls and analyzes and reports on the results.

See more on: U.S. Politics, Donald Trump

Read 1,158 comments

Share full article

1.2k

More on the 2026 Midterm Elections

Times/Siena Poll: The final New York Times/Siena University national poll of the midterm campaign found Democrats led by 11 percentage points when likely voters were asked about the specific candidates for the House in their district. President Trump’s approval rating also hit a new low, the poll found.

G.O.P. Spending: President Trump’s political operation dedicated about $277 million from September through mid-October to help Republican candidates, a staggering sum that has given the party an upper hand financially as it clings to full control of Congress.

Michigan Senate Race: Mike Rogers and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the candidates in the tight race, defended their economic policies in front of business leaders at the Detroit Economic Club.

Ohio Governor’s Race: A Republican ad features the Democrat Dr. Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her daughter a liar. The two have not spoken since Acton’s mother backed her husband after his arrest on rape charges.

Bloomberg Gives $80 Million: The large sum of money given to Democrats by Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor, will help cut into Republicans’ financial advantage.

Related Content

The Bush family members and Carl Rove the chief Republican that made George W President are supporting James Talarico!

As an outsider in my country in Nigeria, when I hear that a politician/political party is spending so much money on elections I can conceptualize what that means. It usually involves literally buying votes. For example - knowing grocery prices are higher and more people can't afford it, they'd buy let's say 10kg of rice, 1 gallon of cooking oils, some cash etc and distribute to voters and breathe down their neck until they vote for them. Some would even have you show them your voting slip before getting the "bribe". This is terrible, but I can understand. This only works in really high poverty areas where people are so hungry and would sell their votes just to feed today regardless of what happens next few years.

For the US, I can't fully wrap my head. I don't think poverty is that high that people will sell their votes for a few hundred dollars worth of grocery. My assumption is that this hundreds of millions I hear about is mainly for ads?. But that begs the question, is the average American so uninformed that a couple of flashy ads can change your mind to vote against your own interest. I have lived in other more developed countries and I don't think I see the level of spending on elections.

So the question - what else are the money spent on, and how are they expected to influence the outcome.

It is quite sad. This is not wha was intended. But Congress is perhaps the greatest weakness in the American system.
Congress was intended to be an independent centre of political authority, not merely an instrument for implementing the president’s wishes.
It has substantial powers, including:
Passing or rejecting legislation.
Controlling federal appropriations.
Investigating executive conduct.
Conducting oversight hearings.
Impeaching a president and, through the constitutionally prescribed process, removing one from office.
But these powers are only effective if members of Congress are willing to use them.
When the president’s party controls Congress, party loyalty can take precedence over institutional independence.
Republican members may fear that opposing Trump will expose them to primary-election challenges, loss of political support or attacks from the president and his allies.
That creates a troubling incentive: legislators may choose to protect their party’s leader rather than defend Congress’s constitutional authority.

Hey everyone! 👋 We're EUobserver, an independent European newsroom.

Our colleague Nikolaj Nielsen grew up in the United States. In a new opinion piece, he reflects on how his relationship with the country has changed over time.

He recalls seeing bulletproof schoolbags advertised alongside guns — an experience that stayed with him and shaped how he thinks about American society.

His piece makes a broader argument about whether Europe can still regard the US as a dependable ally.

But we're also curious about how this looks from the American side.

Do Americans feel that the relationship with Europe has fundamentally changed? Or is the current distrust something that could be repaired?

And 90% of the messaging if pure dystopian fantasy!!!