But everything is great and it’s your fault you can afford a new home. Also, so much for the “dual incomes mean everyone makes six figures+ theory” as well.

‘It immediately puts men on the defensive:’ 😭

UWM, the #1 wholesale mortgage lender in the country, has lost 80% of its value since January 16th, from $6.10 to $1.22. loanDepot, #6, is under a dollar and just got a delisting warning from the NYSE. Mortgage applications are at their lowest since 1995, when the country had about 80 million fewer people.

We've seen this before. In 2007, the mortgage lenders cracked first. New Century went bankrupt that April. Countrywide, the biggest lender in the country, lost most of its value and got sold to Bank of America in a fire sale in January 2008. Lehman didn't fall until that September. The lenders were the canaries in the coal mine.

Meanwhile, the Fed just raised rates. The average 30-year fixed is hovering above 7%, with daily indexes around 7.17% to 7.43%.

The typical household now needs about 38% of its income for a house payment. Lenders' rule of thumb says 28%. Over 30%, HUD calls you cost-burdened. The last time it was this bad was 2006.

The Midwest is holding up better. Pittsburgh is at around 28%. Nashville, Vegas, Florida and most of the coasts are stretched thin, and some of those markets are already falling.

Building costs keep climbing too. Tariffs raised material prices, and record diesel prices make every truckload of lumber, concrete and steel more expensive to haul to the job site.

Sources: Chris Norlund, Reventure Consulting, and Max from UNFTR on MeidasTouch

Edit: Fair points in the comments. A big chunk of UWM's drop came from a $603M hedge loss tied to their failed Two Harbors merger, not just the market. I'm not saying it's 2007 again, just that the warning lights keep stacking up again.

https://archive.ph/WGWzz

• Millions bought homes in 2022–2023 expecting to refinance later at lower rates.
• Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high—above 6.6%—crushing hopes for cheaper refinancing.
• Those locked into 6.5%+ rates face higher monthly payments with few exit options.
• Rising insurance and property taxes compound the burden.
• Home prices are falling in parts of Texas and Florida.
• Some homeowners owe more than their homes are worth, limiting refinance options.
• Temporary rate buydowns (e.g. 2-1 buydowns) are wearing off, increasing payments.
• With no Fed rate cuts expected soon and inflation stickier than hoped, relief isn’t near.

As a native, I'm interested to see how this plays out. I'm thinking Florida may be one of the first states the housing crash hits or the state to suffer the worst.

With mortgage rates continuing to stay untenably high for most Americans, many are staying put. But that doesn’t mean homes don’t need improving and upkeep. And some homeowners figure that if they can’t move into a new home, they’ll make their old home “newer” — a new deck or perhaps a walk-in closet.

Traditionally, a home equity loan or home equity line of credit would be the first tool to reach for. But even those are getting too expensive for homeowners. This leaves homeowners effectively trapped in aging homes with no easy way out, or way to improve them.

And even when homeowners are tapping into home equity loans — homeowners did originate nearly 20% more second mortgages or HELOCs in the second quarter of this year compared with the first quarter — they likely aren’t using the equity for improvements. Experts say they are using them to stay afloat.

Untapped or expensive, Americans are sitting on a record amount of home equity.